Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{kass_situ_2017,
	title = {In situ nuclear magnetic resonance response of permafrost and active layer soil in boreal and tundra ecosystems},
	volume = {11},
	issn = {1994-0416},
	shorttitle = {In situ nuclear magnetic resonance response of permafrost and active layer soil in boreal and tundra ecosystems},
	url = {://WOS:000417944800001},
	doi = {10.5194/tc-11-2943-2017},
	abstract = {Characterization of permafrost, particularly warm and near-surface permafrost which can contain significant liquid water, is critical to understanding complex interrelationships with climate change, ecosystems, and disturbances such as wildfires. Understanding the vulnerability and resilience of permafrost requires an interdisciplinary approach, relying on (for example) geophysical investigations, ecological characterization, direct observations, remote sensing, and more. As part of a multiyear investigation into the impacts of wildfires on permafrost, we have collected in situ measurements of the nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) response of the active layer and permafrost in a variety of soil conditions, types, and saturations. In this paper, we summarize the NMR data and present quantitative relationships between active layer and permafrost liquid water content and pore sizes and show the efficacy of borehole NMR (bNMR) to permafrost studies. Through statistical analyses and synthetic freezing simulations, we also demonstrate that borehole NMR is sensitive to the nucleation of ice within soil pore spaces.},
	language = {English},
	number = {6},
	journal = {Cryosphere},
	author = {Kass, M. A. and Irons, T. P. and Minsley, B. J. and Pastick, N. J. and Brown, D. R. N. and Wylie, B. K.},
	month = dec,
	year = {2017},
	keywords = {Geology, Physical Geography, carbon, alaska, climate-change, surface, nmr, regions, thermokarst, unfrozen water},
	pages = {2943--2955}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{chen_contributions_2017,
	title = {Contributions of wildland fire to terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics in {North} {America} from 1990 to 2012},
	volume = {31},
	issn = {0886-6236},
	shorttitle = {Contributions of wildland fire to terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics in {North} {America} from 1990 to 2012},
	url = {://WOS:000405103200009},
	doi = {10.1002/2016gb005548},
	abstract = {Burn area and the frequency of extreme fire events have been increasing during recent decades in North America, and this trend is expected to continue over the 21st century. While many aspects of the North American carbon budget have been intensively studied, the net contribution of fire disturbance to the overall net carbon flux at the continental scale remains uncertain. Based on national scale, spatially explicit and long-term fire data, along with the improved model parameterization in a process-based ecosystem model, we simulated the impact of fire disturbance on both direct carbon emissions and net terrestrial ecosystem carbon balance in North America. Fire-caused direct carbon emissions were 106.55 +/- 15.98 Tg C/yr during 1990-2012; however, the net ecosystem carbon balance associated with fire was -26.09 +/- 5.22 Tg C/yr, indicating that most of the emitted carbon was resequestered by the terrestrial ecosystem. Direct carbon emissions showed an increase in Alaska and Canada during 1990-2012 as compared to prior periods due to more extreme fire events, resulting in a large carbon source from these two regions. Among biomes, the largest carbon source was found to be from the boreal forest, primarily due to large reductions in soil organic matter during, and with slower recovery after, fire events. The interactions between fire and environmental factors reduced the fire-caused ecosystem carbon source. Fire disturbance only caused a weak carbon source as compared to the best estimate terrestrial carbon sink in North America owing to the long-term legacy effects of historical burn area coupled with fast ecosystem recovery during 1990-2012.},
	language = {English},
	number = {5},
	journal = {Global Biogeochemical Cycles},
	author = {Chen, G. S. and Hayes, D. J. and McGuire, A. D.},
	month = may,
	year = {2017},
	keywords = {Environmental Sciences \& Ecology, Geology, biomass, united-states, storage, emissions, climate-change, balance, boreal forests, wildfire, canada, global land-cover, Meteorology \& Atmospheric, Sciences},
	pages = {878--900}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{santora_persistence_2017,
	title = {Persistence of trophic hotspots and relation to human impacts within an upwelling marine ecosystem},
	volume = {27},
	issn = {1051-0761},
	shorttitle = {Persistence of trophic hotspots and relation to human impacts within an upwelling marine ecosystem},
	url = {://WOS:000395634300019},
	doi = {10.1002/eap.1466},
	abstract = {Human impacts (e.g., fishing, pollution, and shipping) on pelagic ecosystems are increasing, causing concerns about stresses on marine food webs. Maintaining predator-prey relationships through protection of pelagic hotspots is crucial for conservation and management of living marine resources. Biotic components of pelagic, plankton-based, ecosystems exhibit high variability in abundance in time and space (i.e., extreme patchiness), requiring investigation of persistence of abundance across trophic levels to resolve trophic hotspots. Using a 26-yr record of indicators for primary production, secondary (zooplankton and larval fish), and tertiary (seabirds) consumers, we show distributions of trophic hotspots in the southern California Current Ecosystem result from interactions between a strong upwelling center and a productive retention zone with enhanced nutrients, which concentrate prey and predators across multiple trophic levels. Trophic hotspots also overlap with human impacts, including fisheries extraction of coastal pelagic and groundfish species, as well as intense commercial shipping traffic. Spatial overlap of trophic hotspots with fisheries and shipping increases vulnerability of the ecosystem to localized depletion of forage fish, ship strikes on marine mammals, and pollution. This study represents a critical step toward resolving pelagic areas of high conservation interest for planktonic ecosystems and may serve as a model for other ocean regions where ecosystem-based management and marine spatial planning of pelagic ecosystems is warranted.},
	language = {English},
	number = {2},
	journal = {Ecological Applications},
	author = {Santora, J. A. and Sydeman, W. J. and Schroeder, I. D. and Field, J. C. and Miller, R. R. and Wells, B. K.},
	year = {2017},
	keywords = {Environmental Sciences \& Ecology, anchovy, biological hotspots, california, climate-change, cumulative human impacts, current system, dynamic ocean, fisheries, fisheries management, food web, krill, nearshore retention, northern, oil, primary productivity, protected areas, retention, sardine, seabirds, shipping, southern california current, spatial management, upwelling},
	pages = {560--574}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{marazzi_algal_2017,
	title = {Algal richness and life-history strategies are influenced by hydrology and phosphorus in two major subtropical wetlands},
	volume = {62},
	issn = {0046-5070},
	shorttitle = {Algal richness and life-history strategies are influenced by hydrology and phosphorus in two major subtropical wetlands},
	url = {://WOS:000393793100005},
	doi = {10.1111/fwb.12866},
	abstract = {We explored controls of algal taxon richness (hereafter richness) in complex and hydrologically dynamic flood-pulsed wetlands by comparing results from independent studies in two globally important subtropical wetlands: the Okavango Delta (Botswana) and the Florida Everglades (U.S.A.). In both wetlands, the flood pulse hydrology is regulated by distinct wet and dry seasons, and creates floodplain landscapes with heterogeneous habitats; algal growth is limited by phosphorus (P); and water uses threaten ecosystem function. To inform future comparisons of algal richness and distribution patterns, we assessed the role of hydrology and P as key controls of richness, and identified indicator taxa of desiccation disturbance and P scarcity in these wetlands under increasing hydrological, nutrient, and habitat changes. We used the intermediate disturbance hypothesis, and the species-energy theory to explain algal richness patterns, and the competitive, stress-tolerant, ruderal (CSR) framework to classify indicator taxa. We collected algal samples, environmental data and information expected to influence community structure (water depth, relative depth change, P concentrations, hydroperiod and habitat type) over several years at sites representing a broad range of environmental characteristics. To account for sample size differences, we estimated algal richness by determining the asymptote of taxon accumulation curves. Using multiple regression analysis, we assessed if and how water depth, depth change, P, hydroperiod, and habitat type influence richness within each wetland. We then compared the strength of the relationships between these controlling features and richness between wetlands. Using indicator species analysis on relative abundance data, we classified C, S and R indicator taxa associated with shorter/longer hydroperiod, and lower/higher P concentrations. In either wetland, we did not observe the negative unimodal relationship between site-specific richness and water depth change that was expected following the intermediate disturbance hypothesis. It is possible that this relationship exists at more highly resolved temporal scales than the semi-annual to annual scales hypothesised here. However, as nutrient flows and algal habitats depend on these wetlands' flood pulse, maintaining the Okavango's natural pulse, and increasing freshwater flow in the Everglades would help protect these wetlands' algal diversity. Chlorophyta richness (Okavango), and total, Bacillariophyta, Chlorophyta and cyanobacteria richness (Everglades) increased with higher P concentrations, as per species-energy theory. In the Okavango, we classified 6 C and 49 R indicator taxa (e.g. many planktonic Chlorophyta), and in the Everglades, 15 C, 1 S and 9 R taxa (e.g. benthic Bacillariophyta and planktonic/benthic Chlorophyta), and one stress- and disturbance-tolerant cyanobacterium species. Our results offer baseline information for future comparisons of richness, and abundance of C, S and R indicator taxa in subtropical wetlands; this can be used to quantify how algal communities may respond to potential changes in hydrology and P due to water diversion, anthropogenic nutrient loads, and climate change. Examining microhabitat heterogeneity, nitrogen and light availability, and grazing pressure in such wetlands would further illuminate patch-scale controls of richness and life-history strategy distribution in algal communities.},
	language = {English},
	number = {2},
	journal = {Freshwater Biology},
	author = {Marazzi, L. and Gaiser, E. E. and Jones, V. J. and Tobias, F. A. C. and Mackay, A. W.},
	month = feb,
	year = {2017},
	keywords = {biodiversity, algae, Environmental Sciences \& Ecology, phosphorus, hydrology, water chemistry, florida everglades, species-diversity, climate-change, Marine \& Freshwater Biology, biogeographical notes, diversity relationships, floodplains, intermediate disturbance, okavango desmids zygnematophyceae, phytoplankton communities, subtropical wetlands, temporary},
	pages = {274--290}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{knowles_use_2017,
	title = {On the use of a snow aridity index to predict remotely sensed forest productivity in the presence of bark beetle disturbance},
	volume = {53},
	issn = {0043-1397},
	shorttitle = {On the use of a snow aridity index to predict remotely sensed forest productivity in the presence of bark beetle disturbance},
	url = {://WOS:000405997000023},
	doi = {10.1002/2016wr019887},
	abstract = {We used multiple sources of remotely sensed and ground based information to evaluate the spatiotemporal variability of snowpack accumulation, potential evapotranspiration (PET), and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) throughout the Southern Rocky Mountain ecoregion, USA. Relationships between these variables were used to establish baseline values of expected forest productivity given water and energy inputs. Although both the snow water equivalent (SWE) and a snow aridity index (SAI), which used SWE to normalize PET, were significant predictors of the long-term (1989-2012) NDVI, SAI explained 11\% more NDVI variability than SWE. Deviations from these relationships were subsequently explored in the context of widespread forest mortality due to bark beetles. Over the entire study area, NDVI was lower per unit SAI in beetle-disturbed compared to undisturbed areas during snow-related drought; however, both SAI and NDVI were spatially heterogeneous within this domain. As a result, we selected three focus areas inside the larger study area within which to isolate the relative impacts of SAI and disturbance on NDVI using multivariate linear regression. These models explained 66\%-85\% of the NDVI and further suggested that both SAI and disturbance effects were significant, although the disturbance effect was generally greater. These results establish the utility of SAI as a measure of moisture limitation in snow-dominated systems and demonstrate a reduction in forest productivity due to bark beetle disturbance that is particularly evident during drought conditions resultant from low snow accumulation during the winter.},
	language = {English},
	number = {6},
	journal = {Water Resources Research},
	author = {Knowles, J. F. and Lestak, L. R. and Molotch, N. P.},
	month = jun,
	year = {2017},
	keywords = {Environmental Sciences \& Ecology, western united-states, high-elevation, climate-change, north-america, Marine \& Freshwater Biology, Resources, Water, cover data, landsat thematic mapper, mountain pine-beetle, rio-grande headwaters, sub-alpine forest, water equivalent},
	pages = {4891--4906}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{rose_annual_2017,
	title = {Annual precipitation regulates spatial and temporal drivers of lake water clarity},
	volume = {27},
	issn = {1051-0761},
	shorttitle = {Annual precipitation regulates spatial and temporal drivers of lake water clarity},
	url = {://WOS:000395634300024},
	doi = {10.1002/eap.1471},
	abstract = {Understanding how and why lakes vary and respond to different drivers through time and space is needed to understand, predict, and manage freshwater quality in an era of rapidly changing land use and climate. Water clarity regulates many characteristics of aquatic ecosystems and is responsive to watershed features, making it a sentinel of environmental change. However, whether precipitation alters the relative importance of features that influence lake water clarity or the spatial scales at which they operate is unknown. We used a data set of thousands of northern temperate lakes and asked (1) How does water clarity differ between a very wet vs. dry year? (2) Does the relative importance of different watershed features, or the spatial extent at which they are measured, vary between wet and dry years? (3)What lake and watershed characteristics regulate long-term water clarity trends? Among lakes, water clarity was reduced and less variable in the wet year than in the dry year; furthermore, water clarity was reduced much more in high-clarity lakes during the wet year than in low-clarity lakes. Climate, land use/land cover, and lake morphometry explained most variance in clarity among lakes in both years, but the spatial scales at which some features were important differed between the dry and wet years. Watershed percent agriculture was most important in the dry year, whereas riparian zone percent agriculture (around each lake and upstream features) was most important in the wet year. Between 1991 and 2012, water clarity declined in 23\% of lakes and increased in only 6\% of lakes. Conductance influenced the direction of temporal trend (clarity declined in lakes with low conductance), whereas the proportion of watershed wetlands, catchment-to-lake-area ratio, and lake maximum depth interacted with antecedent precipitation. Many predictors of water clarity, such as lake depth and landscape position, are features that cannot be readily managed. Given trends of increasing precipitation, eliminating riparian zone agriculture or keeping it {\textless}10\% of area may be an effective option to maintain or improve water clarity.},
	language = {English},
	number = {2},
	journal = {Ecological Applications},
	author = {Rose, K. C. and Greb, S. R. and Diebel, M. and Turner, M. G.},
	year = {2017},
	keywords = {Environmental Sciences \& Ecology, climate-change, dissolved organic-carbon, land use, land-use, land-water interactions, landscape ecology, landscape position, precipitation, random forests, remote sensing, responses, riparian vegetation, surface-water, united-states, water quality, wisconsin},
	pages = {632--643}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{koweek_year_2017,
	title = {A year in the life of a central {California} kelp forest: physical and biological insights into biogeochemical variability},
	volume = {14},
	issn = {1726-4170},
	shorttitle = {A year in the life of a central {California} kelp forest: physical and biological insights into biogeochemical variability},
	url = {://WOS:000392404800001},
	doi = {10.5194/bg-14-31-2017},
	abstract = {Kelp forests are among the world's most productive marine ecosystems, yet little is known about their biogeochemistry. This study presents a 14-month time series (July 2013-August 2014) of surface and benthic dissolved inorganic carbon and total alkalinity measurements, along with accompanying hydrographic measurements, from six locations within a central California kelp forest. We present ranges and patterns of variability in carbonate chemistry, including pH (7.70-8.33), pCO(2) (172-952 mu atm), and the aragonite saturation state, Omega(Ar) (0.94-3.91). Surface-to-bottom gradients in CO2 system chemistry were as large as the spatial gradients throughout the bottom of the kelp forest. Dissolved inorganic carbon variability was the main driver of the observed CO2 system variability. The majority of spatial variability in the kelp forest can be explained by advection of cold, dense high-CO2 waters into the bottom of the kelp forest, with deeper sites experiencing high-CO2 conditions more frequently. Despite the strong imprint of advection on the biogeochemical variability of the kelp forest, surface waters were undersaturated with CO2 in the spring through fall, indicative of the strong role of photosynthesis on biogeochemical variability. We emphasize the importance of spatially distributed measurements for developing a process-based understanding of kelp forest ecosystem function in a changing climate.},
	language = {English},
	number = {1},
	journal = {Biogeosciences},
	author = {Koweek, D. A. and Nickols, K. J. and Leary, P. R. and Litvin, S. Y. and Bell, T. W. and Luthin, T. and Lummis, S. and Mucciarone, D. A. and Dunbar, R. B.},
	month = jan,
	year = {2017},
	keywords = {ecosystems, Environmental Sciences \& Ecology, Geology, oxygen, coast, ocean acidification, climate-change, giant-kelp, carbonic-acid, macrocystis-pyrifera, seawater, southern-california},
	pages = {31--44}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{boucek_trophic_2017,
	title = {Trophic state indicators are a better predictor of {Florida} bass condition compared to temperature in {Florida}'s freshwater bodies},
	volume = {100},
	issn = {0378-1909},
	shorttitle = {Trophic state indicators are a better predictor of {Florida} bass condition compared to temperature in {Florida}'s freshwater bodies},
	url = {://WOS:000412840700003},
	doi = {10.1007/s10641-017-0635-9},
	abstract = {Forecasted increases in global temperatures will likely have profound effects on freshwater fishes. Overlaid on increasing global temperatures, human populations are expected to grow, which will increase anthropogenic nutrient enrichment in freshwater ecosystems. Florida (US) represents the equatorial range limit for many freshwater fishes, thus these species are potentially at risk to climate warming. Likewise, Florida's population is expected to aggressively expand, increasing risk for nutrient enrichment. In this study, we examined whether maximum water temperatures or trophic state indicators (a proxy for nutrient enrichment) better explains variation in Florida Bass (Micropterus salmoides floridanus) condition across 23 different Florida freshwater bodies distributed throughout the state. Florida Bass lengths and weights, temperature, and chlorophyll-alpha, total phosphorous (TP), and total nitrogen (TN) measures were collected in the late summer and fall from 2010 to 2012. We described relationships between bass relative condition and environmental measurements (temperature, and trophic state indicators) across these lake-year combinations using linear and non-linear regressions. We found no significant relationship between temperature and bass condition (r(2) = 0.01). However, we found that trophic state indicators did predict bass condition (r(2) = 0.39-0.50). Though research is needed to more rigorously assess the effects of rising temperature on bass condition, our results may suggest that lake productivity is currently an influential driver on Florida Bass. As such, management efforts should continue to closely monitor and manage water quality and potential nutrient enrichment in Florida's freshwater waters, as bass condition appears to be closely tied to lake productivity.},
	language = {English},
	number = {10},
	journal = {Environmental Biology of Fishes},
	author = {Boucek, R. and Barrientos, C. and Bush, M. R. and Gandy, D. A. and Wilson, K. L. and Young, J. M.},
	month = oct,
	year = {2017},
	keywords = {lake, Environmental Sciences \& Ecology, productivity, oxygen, thermal tolerance, fish, largemouth bass, limitation, climate-change, Marine \& Freshwater Biology, northern, body condition, Condition, Florida, Florida bass, Lake productivity, micropterus-salmoides},
	pages = {1181--1192}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{pineiro_effects_2017,
	title = {Effects of elevated {CO}2 on fine root biomass are reduced by aridity but enhanced by soil nitrogen: {A} global assessment},
	volume = {7},
	issn = {2045-2322},
	shorttitle = {Effects of elevated {CO}2 on fine root biomass are reduced by aridity but enhanced by soil nitrogen: {A} global assessment},
	url = {://WOS:000414917800095},
	doi = {10.1038/s41598-017-15728-4},
	abstract = {Plant roots play a crucial role in regulating key ecosystem processes such as carbon (C) sequestration and nutrient solubilisation. Elevated (e)CO2 is expected to alter the biomass of fine, coarse and total roots to meet increased demand for other resources such as water and nitrogen (N), however, the magnitude and direction of observed changes vary considerably between ecosystems. Here, we assessed how climate and soil properties mediate root responses to eCO(2) by comparing 24 field-based CO2 experiments across the globe including a wide range of ecosystem types. We calculated response ratios (i.e. effect size) and used structural equation modelling (SEM) to achieve a system-level understanding of how aridity, mean annual temperature and total soil nitrogen simultaneously drive the response of total, coarse and fine root biomass to eCO(2). Models indicated that increasing aridity limits the positive response of fine and total root biomass to eCO(2), and that fine (but not coarse or total) root responses to eCO(2) are positively related to soil total N. Our results provide evidence that consideration of factors such as aridity and soil N status is crucial for predicting plant and ecosystem-scale responses to future changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and thus feedbacks to climate change.},
	language = {English},
	journal = {Scientific Reports},
	author = {Pineiro, J. and Ochoa-Hueso, R. and Delgado-Baquerizo, M. and Dobrick, S. and Reich, P. B. and Pendall, E. and Power, S. A.},
	month = nov,
	year = {2017},
	keywords = {Science \& Technology - Other Topics, atmospheric co2, carbon-dioxide enrichment, climate-change, grassland, metaanalysis, n fertilization, plant-growth, responses, warm-temperate forest, water relations},
	pages = {9}
}

@article{doblas-mirandaReviewCombinationGlobal2017,
  title = {A Review of the Combination among Global Change Factors in Forests, Shrublands and Pastures of the {{Mediterranean Region}}: Beyond Drought Effects},
  author = {{Doblas-Miranda}, E. and Alonso, R. and Arnan, X. and Bermejo, V. and Brotons, L. and {de las Heras}, J. and Estiarte, M. and H{\'o}dar, J. A. and Llorens, P. and Lloret, F. and {L{\'o}pez-Serrano}, F. R. and {Mar{\'t}{\i}nez-Vilalta}, J. and Moya, D. and Pe{\~n}uelas, J. and Pino, J. and Rodrigo, A. and {Roura-Pascual}, N. and Valladares, F. and Vil{\`a}, M. and Zamora, R. and Retana, J.},
  year = {2017},
  month = jan,
  volume = {148},
  pages = {42--54},
  issn = {0921-8181},
  doi = {10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.11.012},
  abstract = {[Highlights]

[::] Different global change factors combine causing unprecedented ecological effects. [::] Much more complex interactions arise when combinations occur together. [::] Drought should be considered when designing and applying management policies. [::] Conserving Mediterranean terrestrial ecosystems is a collective effort.

[Abstract]

Climate change, alteration of atmospheric composition, land abandonment in some areas and land use intensification in others, wildfires and biological invasions threaten forests, shrublands and pastures all over the world. However, the impacts of the combinations between global change factors are not well understood despite its pressing importance. Here we posit that reviewing global change factors combination in an exemplary region can highlight the necessary aspects in order to better understand the challenges we face, warning about the consequences, and showing the challenges ahead of us. The forests, shrublands and pastures of the Mediterranean Basin are an ideal scenario for the study of these combinations due to its spatial and temporal heterogeneity, increasing and diverse human population and the historical legacy of land use transformations. The combination of multiple global change factors in the Basin shows different ecological effects. Some interactions alter the effects of a single factor, as drought enhances or decreases the effects of atmospheric components on plant ecophysiology. Several interactions generate new impacts: drought and land use changes, among others, alter water resources and lead to land degradation, vegetation regeneration decline, and expansion of forest diseases. Finally, different factors can occur alone or simultaneously leading to further increases in the risk of fires and biological invasions. The transitional nature of the Basin between temperate and arid climates involves a risk of irreversible ecosystem change towards more arid states. However, combinations between factors lead to unpredictable ecosystem alteration that goes beyond the particular consequences of drought. Complex global change scenarios should be studied in the Mediterranean and other regions of the world, including interregional studies. Here we show the inherent uncertainty of this complexity, which should be included in any management strategy.},
  journal = {Global and Planetary Change},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14277883,~to-add-doi-URL,agricultural-abandonment,arid-region,climate-change,complexity,degradation,droughts,ecosystem,feedback,forest-fires,forest-management,forest-pests,forest-resources,global-change,integrated-natural-resources-modelling-and-management,land-use,mediterranean-region,non-linearity,pastures,review,shrubs,species-decline,uncertainty,vegetation,water-resources,wildfires},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-14277883}
}

@article{natureMaximumClimateAmbition2016,
  title = {The Maximum Climate Ambition Needs a Firm Research Backing},
  author = {{Nature}},
  year = {2016},
  month = sep,
  volume = {537},
  pages = {585--586},
  issn = {0028-0836},
  doi = {10.1038/537585b},
  abstract = {We need to know what the 1.5 \textdegree C warming target will involve -- even if we don't reach it.

[Excerpt] [...] The 2015 Paris climate agreement commits governments to keeping average global surface temperatures to between 1.5\,\textdegree C and 2\,\textdegree C above the preindustrial level. But warming has already passed the 1-degree mark, and some estimates suggest that even if current commitments are fully implemented, they would allow temperatures to rise nearly 3\,\textdegree C. If the 2-degree goal seems implausible, given current politics, 1.5\,\textdegree C is very nearly inconceivable.

[] Nevertheless, countries calling for more aggressive action -- often those that have contributed the least to the problem and now have the most to lose -- pushed for the 1.5\,\textdegree C IPCC assessment. The deadlines are tight: scientists around the world now have roughly a year to run their models and submit papers to bolster the scarce body of literature surrounding the 1.5-degree goal. The IPCC will present its assessment in 2018, just before UN negotiators hold their first major meeting to assess progress under the Paris agreement and presumably to discuss ways to hasten action. [...]},
  journal = {Nature},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14148626,anthropic-feedback,anthropocene,anthropogenic-impacts,climate-change,environmental-policy,global-scale,global-warming,science-policy-interface,science-society-interface},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-14148626},
  number = {7622}
}

@article{dosioProjectionsClimateChange2016,
  title = {Projections of Climate Change Indices of Temperature and Precipitation from an Ensemble of Bias-Adjusted High-Resolution {{EURO}}-{{CORDEX}} Regional Climate Models},
  author = {Dosio, Alessandro},
  year = {2016},
  month = may,
  volume = {121},
  pages = {2015JD024411-5511},
  issn = {2169-897X},
  doi = {10.1002/2015jd024411},
  abstract = {Statistical bias-adjustment of climate models' outputs is being increasingly used for assessing the impact of climate change on several sectors. It is known that these techniques may alter the mean climate signal of the adjusted variable; however, the effect on the projected occurrence of climate extremes is less commonly investigated. Here the outputs of an ensemble of high-resolution (0.11\textdegree ) regional climate models (RCM) from the Coordinated Regional-climate Downscaling Experiment for Europe (EURO-CORDEX) have been bias adjusted, and a number of climate indices from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices have been calculated for the present (1981-2010) and future (2071-2100) climate. Indices include absolute-thresholds indices, percentile-based indices, and indices based on the duration of an event. Results show that absolute-threshold indices are largely affected by bias adjustment, as they depend strongly on both the present mean climate value (usually largely biased in the original RCMs) and its shift under climate change. The change of percentile-based indices is less affected by bias adjustment, as that of indices based on the duration of an event (e.g., consecutive dry days or heat waves) although the present climate value can differ between original and bias-adjusted results. Indices like R95ptot (the total amount of precipitation larger than the 95th reference percentile) are largely affected by bias adjustment, although, when analyzing an ensemble of RCMs, the differences are usually smaller than, or comparable to, the intermodel variability.},
  journal = {J. Geophys. Res. Atmos.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14053888,~to-add-doi-URL,bias-correction,climate-change,ipcc,ipcc-scenarios,precipitation,temperature},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-14053888},
  number = {10}
}

@article{naudtsEuropeForestManagement2016,
  title = {Europe's Forest Management Did Not Mitigate Climate Warming},
  author = {Naudts, Kim and Chen, Yiying and McGrath, Matthew J. and Ryder, James and Valade, Aude and Otto, Juliane and Luyssaert, Sebastiaan},
  year = {2016},
  volume = {351},
  pages = {597--600},
  issn = {1095-9203},
  doi = {10.1126/science.aad7270},
  abstract = {[Europe's managed forests contribute to warming]

For most of the past 250 years, surprisingly it seems that Europe's managed forests have been a net source of carbon, contributing to climate warming rather than mitigating it. Naudts et al. reconstructed the history of forest management in Europe in the context of a land-atmosphere model. The release of carbon otherwise stored in litter, dead wood, and soil carbon pools in managed forests was one key factor contributing to climate warming. Second, the conversion of broadleaved forests to coniferous forests has changed the albedo and evapotranspiration of those forests, also leading to warming. Thus, climate change mitigation policies in Europe and elsewhere may need to consider changes in forest management.

[Abstract]

Afforestation and forest management are considered to be key instruments in mitigating climate change. Here we show that since 1750, in spite of considerable afforestation, wood extraction has led to Europe's forests accumulating a carbon debt of 3.1 petagrams of carbon. We found that afforestation is responsible for an increase of 0.12 watts per square meter in the radiative imbalance at the top of the atmosphere, whereas an increase of 0.12 kelvin in summertime atmospheric boundary layer temperature was mainly caused by species conversion. Thus, two and a half centuries of forest management in Europe have not cooled the climate. The political imperative to mitigate climate change through afforestation and forest management therefore risks failure, unless it is recognized that not all forestry contributes to climate change mitigation.},
  journal = {Science},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13925692,~to-add-doi-URL,albedo,anthropic-feedback,bias-toward-primacy-of-theory-over-reality,climate-change,complexity,forest-management,forest-resources,global-warming,historical-perspective,incomplete-knowledge,local-over-complication,modelling-uncertainty,science-based-decision-making,science-policy-interface,uncertainty,unexpected-effect,unknown},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13925692},
  number = {6273}
}

@article{lascoSmallholderFarmersPerceptions2016,
  title = {Smallholder Farmers' Perceptions of Climate Change and the Roles of Trees and Agroforestry in Climate Risk Adaptation: Evidence from {{Bohol}}, {{Philippines}}},
  author = {Lasco, Rodel D. and Espaldon, Marya L. and Habito, Christine M.},
  year = {2016},
  volume = {90},
  pages = {521--540},
  issn = {1572-9680},
  doi = {10.1007/s10457-015-9874-y},
  abstract = {Recent studies have highlighted the importance of trees and agroforestry in climate change adaptation and mitigation. This paper analyzes how farmers, members of their households, and community leaders in the Wahig-Inabanga watershed, Bohol province in the Philippines perceive of climate change, and define and value the roles of trees in coping with climate risks. Focus group discussions revealed that farmers and community leaders had observed changes in rainfall and temperature over the years. They also had positive perceptions of tree roles in coping with climate change, with most timber tree species valued for regulating functions, while non-timber trees were valued as sources of food and income. Statistical analysis of the household survey results was done through linear probability models for both determinants of farmers' perceived changes in climate, and perceived importance of tree roles in coping with climate risks. Perceiving of changes in rainfall was more likely among farmers who had access to electricity, had access to water for irrigation, and derived climate information from government agencies and mass media, and less likely among farmers who were members of farmers' organizations. On the other hand, perceiving of an increase in temperature was more likely among famers who were members of women's organizations and had more off/non-farm sources of income, and less likely among those who derived climate information from government agencies. Meanwhile, marginal effects of the regression on perceived importance of trees in coping with climate change revealed positively significant relationships with the following predictor variables: access to electricity, number of off/non-farm sources of income, having trees planted by household members, observed increase in temperature and decline in yield, and sourcing climate information from government agencies. In contrast, a negatively significant relationship was observed between recognition of the importance of tree roles, and level of education, and deriving income from tree products. In promoting tree-based adaptation, we recommend improving access to necessary inputs and resources, exploring the potentials of farmer-to-farmer extension, using participatory approaches to generate farmer-led solutions based on their experiences of climate change, and initiating government-led extension to farmers backed by non-government partners.},
  journal = {Agroforestry Systems},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14124971,~to-add-doi-URL,adaptation,agricultural-resources,agroforestry,climate-change,forest-resources,philippines,risk-management},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-14124971},
  number = {3}
}

@article{andersonTroubleNegativeEmissions2016,
  title = {The Trouble with Negative Emissions},
  author = {Anderson, Kevin and Peters, Glen},
  year = {2016},
  month = oct,
  volume = {354},
  pages = {182--183},
  issn = {1095-9203},
  doi = {10.1126/science.aah4567},
  abstract = {In December 2015, member states of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) adopted the Paris Agreement, which aims to hold the increase in the global average temperature to below 2\textdegree C and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5\textdegree C. The Paris Agreement requires that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission sources and sinks are balanced by the second half of this century. Because some nonzero sources are unavoidable, this leads to the abstract concept of '' negative emissions,'' the removal of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere through technical means. The Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) informing policy-makers assume the large-scale use of negative-emission technologies. If we rely on these and they are not deployed or are unsuccessful at removing CO2 from the atmosphere at the levels assumed, society will be locked into a high-temperature pathway.

[Excerpt] [...] The promise of future and cost-optimal negative-emission technologies is more politically appealing than the prospect of developing policies to deliver rapid and deep mitigation now. If negative-emission technologies do indeed follow the idealized, rapid, and successful deployment assumed in the models, then any reduction in near-term mitigation caused by the appeal of negative emissions will likely lead to only a small and temporary overshoot of the Paris temperature goals. In stark contrast, if the many reservations increasingly voiced about negative-emission technologies [...] turn out to be valid, the weakening of near-term mitigation and the failure of future negative-emission technologies will be a prelude to rapid temperature rises reminiscent of the 4\textdegree C '' business as usual'' pathway feared before the Paris Agreement.

[] Negative-emission technologies are not an insurance policy, but rather an unjust and high-stakes gamble. There is a real risk they will be unable to deliver on the scale of their promise. If the emphasis on equity and risk aversion embodied in the Paris Agreement are to have traction, negative-emission technologies should not form the basis of the mitigation agenda. [...] They could very reasonably be the subject of research, development, and potentially deployment, but the mitigation agenda should proceed on the premise that they will not work at scale. The implications of failing to do otherwise are a moral hazard par excellence.},
  journal = {Science},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14161174,~to-add-doi-URL,biodiversity,bioenergy,carbon-capture-and-storage,carbon-dioxide-removal,carbon-emissions,climate-change,environment-society-economy,ghg,global-warming,integrated-modelling,negative-emissions,policy-strategies-for-scientific-uncertainty,science-ethics,science-policy-interface,science-society-interface,sustainability,technology,terminology,trade-offs,uncertainty,unknown},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-14161174},
  number = {6309}
}

@article{lasram_cumulative_2016,
	title = {Cumulative human threats on fish biodiversity components in {Tunisian} waters},
	volume = {17},
	issn = {1108-393X},
	abstract = {Human activities are increasingly impacting biodiversity. To improve conservation planning measures in an ecosystem-based management context, we need to explore how the effects of these activities interact with different biodiversity components. In this study, we used a semi-quantitative method to assess the cumulative impacts of human activities on three biodiversity components (species richness, phylogenetic diversity, and functional diversity) in Tunisia's exclusive economic zone. For each of the nine activities considered, we developed an understanding of their effects from local studies and the expert opinion of stakeholders with country-speciic experience. We mapped the cumulative effects and the three biodiversity components and then assessed the degree to which these elements overlapped using an overlap index. This is the first time such an assessment has been made for Tunisia's marine ecosystems and our assessment highlight the inappropriateness of current conservation measures. The results of this study have specific application for the prioritization of future management actions.},
	language = {English},
	number = {1},
	journal = {Mediterranean Marine Science},
	author = {Lasram, F. Ben Rais and Hattab, T. and Halouani, G. and Romdhane, M. S. and Le Loc'h, F. and Albouy, C.},
	year = {2016},
	note = {00000 
WOS:000374469200017},
	keywords = {ACL, Anthropogenic impacts, Fish, california current, climate-change, conservation planning, functional diversity, impact, marine ecosystems, mass extinction, phylogenetic diversity, sea, services, species richness},
	pages = {190--201}
}

@book{andersonStateWorldPlants2016,
  title = {State of the World's Plants - 2016},
  author = {Anderson, Seona and Bachman, Steven and Barker, Abigail and Belyaeva, Irina and Benz, David and Biggs, Bridget and Black, Nick and Budden, Andrew and Canteiro, C{\'a}tia and {Caste{\~n}eda-{\'A}lvarez}, Nora and Cheek, Martin and Clarke, Guy and Clubbe, Colin and Damasceno, Geraldo and Darbyshire, Iain and Davis, Aaron and Dempewolf, Hannes and Eastwood, Ruth and Fernandez, Eduardo P. and Forest, Felix and Forzza, Rafaela C. and Govaerts, Rafa{\"e}l and Guarino, Luigi and Halski, Beth and Hargreaves, Serene and Hudson, Alex and Khoury, Colin K. and Kuhn, Nicola and Larocca, Jo{\~a}o and Leitch, Ilia and Lindon, Heather and Long, Peter and Lughadha, Eimear N. and {Macias-Fauria}, Marc and Moat, Justin and Simmonds, Monique and M{\"u}ller, Jonas M. and Newton, Rosemary and Nicolson, Nicky and O'Sullivan, Robert and Parker, Joe and Paton, Alan and Petrokofsky, Gillian and Rivers, Malin and Rutherford, Catherine and Simmonds, Monique and Smith, Matthew and Smyth, Noeleen and Turner, Rob and Ulian, Tiziana and Wilkinson, Tim and Williams, China and Williams, Emma and Willis, Kathy and Zappi, Daniela},
  year = {2016},
  publisher = {{Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew}},
  abstract = {This report provides, for the first time, a baseline assessment of our current knowledge on the diversity of plants on earth, the global threats these plants currently face, and the policies in place and their effectiveness in dealing with these threats.

[] On the diversity of plants, we can report that there are now an estimated{\~ }391,000 vascular plants known to science of which 369,000 are flowering plants. Around 2000 new vascular plant species are described each year. In 2015 these included a massive leguminous tree (Gilbertiodendron maximum), more than 90 species of Begonia, 13 new species from the onion family, and discovery of a close relative of sweet potato (Ipomoea batatas). Most were found during fieldwork, some in herbarium specimens, while one of the largest carnivorous plants known (1.5m in height) a new insect-eating plant, Drosera magnifica was first discovered on Facebook. However, there are still large parts of the world where very little is known about the plants. Identification of these important plant areas is now critical. Similarly, we still only know a fraction of the genetic diversity of plants and whole-genome sequences are currently available for just 139 species of vascular plants.

[] In terms of uses of plants, at least 31,000 plant species have a documented use as medicines, food, materials and so on. A further 3,546 crop wild relatives are prioritised for collecting and preservation in genebanks. These plants, from a wide range of geographic and ecological locations, provide a pool of genetic variation that is of critical importance to global food security. More research effort is needed to build up these collections in global gene banks including Kew's Millennium Seedbank.

[] Knowledge of the impacts of climate change on plants is known for some regions of the world, but there are still large areas for which little or no research exists. In those areas where good data is available, clear impacts are visible including changes in flowering times, turnover in plant communities and movement of species with changing climates.

[] All but one of the world's biomes have experienced more than 10\,\% change in land-cover type in the past decade due to the combined impacts of land-use and climate change.

[] A large global movement of alien invasive plant species is occurring. Around 5000 species are now documented as invasive in global surveys. These plants are causing large declines in native plants, damaging natural ecosystems, transforming land-cover and often causing huge economic losses. Those that are most invasive share a similar life-form - which is the ability to die-back during unfavourable seasons and survive as bulbs, rhizomes, tubers, root buds or seeds. Japanese knotweed is a classic example of this life-form which survives underground as a rhizome.

[] There are many emerging threats also occurring with plant diseases caused by fungal, bacterial and viral pathogens. Research effort into these diseases is skewed towards countries with a wealthier research infrastructure.

[] Given the threats associated with climate change, land-use change, invasive plants and diseases, best estimates lead us to believe that 21\,\% of the world's plants are currently threatened with extinction.

[] International trade in endangered plants is causing additional pressure on wild biodiversity and strict enforcement of international legislation is crucial. Adoption and implementation of policies such as CITES (Convention on Trade in Endangered Species) other international legislative instruments, such as the Nagoya Protocol, already appear to be having some effect at enabling countries to best conserve and utilise the biodiversity they hold.},
  isbn = {978-1-84246-628-5},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14034628,biodiversity,climate-change,conservation,ecosystem,featured-publication,genetic-diversity,global-change,global-scale,invasive-species,land-cover,plant-pests,species-extinction,vegetation},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-14034628}
}

@article{tollefsonClimatechangeHiatusDisappears2015,
  title = {Climate-Change 'hiatus' Disappears with New Data},
  author = {Tollefson, Jeff},
  year = {2015},
  month = jun,
  issn = {1476-4687},
  doi = {10.1038/nature.2015.17700},
  abstract = {US agency's updated temperature records suggest that global warming continues apace.

[Excerpt] An apparent pause in global warming might have been a temporary mirage, according to recent analysis. Global average temperatures have continued to rise throughout the first part of the 21st century, researchers report on 5 June in Science1.

[\textbackslash n] That finding, which contradicts the 2013 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is based on an update of the global temperature records maintained by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The previous version of the NOAA dataset had showed less warming during the first decade of the millennium.

[\textbackslash n] Researchers revised the NOAA dataset to correct for known biases in sea-surface temperature records and to incorporate data from new land-based monitoring stations that extend into the Arctic -- an area where observations are sparse. The updated NOAA dataset also includes observations from 2013 and 2014; the latter ranked as the warmest year on record. [...]},
  journal = {Nature},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13640209,~to-add-doi-URL,bias-correction,climate-change,data-uncertainty,global-warming,modelling,temperature},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13640209}
}

@article{leePacificOriginAbrupt2015,
  title = {Pacific Origin of the Abrupt Increase in {{Indian Ocean}} Heat Content during the Warming Hiatus},
  author = {Lee, Sang-Ki and Park, Wonsun and Baringer, Molly O. and Gordon, Arnold L. and Huber, Bruce and Liu, Yanyun},
  year = {2015},
  month = jun,
  volume = {8},
  pages = {445--449},
  issn = {1752-0894},
  doi = {10.1038/ngeo2438},
  abstract = {Global mean surface warming has stalled since the end of the twentieth century1, 2, but the net radiation imbalance at the top of the atmosphere continues to suggest an increasingly warming planet. This apparent contradiction has been reconciled by an anomalous heat flux into the ocean3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, induced by a shift towards a La Ni\~na-like state with cold sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific over the past decade or so. A significant portion of the heat missing from the atmosphere is therefore expected to be stored in the Pacific Ocean. However, in situ hydrographic records indicate that Pacific Ocean heat content has been decreasing9. Here, we analyse observations along with simulations from a global ocean-sea ice model to track the pathway of heat. We find that the enhanced heat uptake by the Pacific Ocean has been compensated by an increased heat transport from the Pacific Ocean to the Indian Ocean, carried by the Indonesian throughflow. As a result, Indian Ocean heat content has increased abruptly, which accounts for more than 70\,\% of the global ocean heat gain in the upper 700 m during the past decade. We conclude that the Indian Ocean has become increasingly important in modulating global climate variability.},
  journal = {Nature Geosci},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13618538,~to-add-doi-URL,climate-change,global-warming,heat-storage,indian-ocean,oceans},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13618538},
  number = {6}
}

@article{kelleyClimateChangeFertile2015,
  title = {Climate Change in the {{Fertile Crescent}} and Implications of the Recent {{Syrian}} Drought},
  author = {Kelley, Colin P. and Mohtadi, Shahrzad and Cane, Mark A. and Seager, Richard and Kushnir, Yochanan},
  year = {2015},
  month = mar,
  volume = {112},
  pages = {3241--3246},
  issn = {1091-6490},
  doi = {10.1073/pnas.1421533112},
  abstract = {[Significance]

There is evidence that the 2007-2010 drought contributed to the conflict in Syria. It was the worst drought in the instrumental record, causing widespread crop failure and a mass migration of farming families to urban centers. Century-long observed trends in precipitation, temperature, and sea-level pressure, supported by climate model results, strongly suggest that anthropogenic forcing has increased the probability of severe and persistent droughts in this region, and made the occurrence of a 3-year drought as severe as that of 2007-2010 2 to 3 times more likely than by natural variability alone. We conclude that human influences on the climate system are implicated in the current Syrian conflict.

[Abstract]

Before the Syrian uprising that began in 2011, the greater Fertile Crescent experienced the most severe drought in the instrumental record. For Syria, a country marked by poor governance and unsustainable agricultural and environmental policies, the drought had a catalytic effect, contributing to political unrest. We show that the recent decrease in Syrian precipitation is a combination of natural variability and a long-term drying trend, and the unusual severity of the observed drought is here shown to be highly unlikely without this trend. Precipitation changes in Syria are linked to rising mean sea-level pressure in the Eastern Mediterranean, which also shows a long-term trend. There has been also a long-term warming trend in the Eastern Mediterranean, adding to the drawdown of soil moisture. No natural cause is apparent for these trends, whereas the observed drying and warming are consistent with model studies of the response to increases in greenhouse gases. Furthermore, model studies show an increasingly drier and hotter future mean climate for the Eastern Mediterranean. Analyses of observations and model simulations indicate that a drought of the severity and duration of the recent Syrian drought, which is implicated in the current conflict, has become more than twice as likely as a consequence of human interference in the climate system.},
  journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13533740,climate-change,conflicts,droughts,geopolitics},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13533740},
  number = {11}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{citeulike:13690523,
    abstract = {Forest mortality is globally present, and pedunculate oak (Quercus robur) forests in Europe are no exception at all. The aim of this study was to tackle the issue of oak floodplain forests response to water level, temperature and precipitation changes due to the altered climate conditions. We examined interannual and interseasonal scales using dendroecological analysis. The goal was to review the growth from the perspective of forest management practice, including specific recommendations for forest managers. The most important environmental variable in the growth of pedunculate oak forests in Serbia (Srem region) in the last 60 years was the Sava River water level. Due to the decrease in the water level and temperature increase in the last 30 years, a general decline in growth was observed. The months that displayed the most significant correlation between the growth, water level and temperature were April, May, June, July and August, while May was the most significant month as far as precipitation influence is concerned. Responses of the various tree groups due to different age and sites (flooded vs. non-flooded, virgin vs. managed forests) were observed, although all tree groups displayed fundamentally the same response to variations in environmental conditions. The  ” Stara Vrati\v{c}na” virgin forest was considered to be without future owing to the growth decline and lack of regeneration. Guidelines for forest managers were created. Overall directions were: to increase the groundwater level in the ecosystem during prolonged drought periods if possible; to promote regeneration, which is closer to nature; and to promote forest mixing.},
    author = {Stojanovi\'{c}, D. B. and Levani\v{c}, T. and Matovi\'{c}, B. and Orlovi\'{c}, S.},
    booktitle = {European Journal of Forest Research},
    citeulike-article-id = {13690523},
    citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10342-015-0871-5},
    citeulike-linkout-1 = {http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10342-015-0871-5},
    doi = {10.1007/s10342-015-0871-5},
    journal = {European Journal of Forest Research},
    keywords = {climate-change, forest-resources, groundwater, oak-decline, quercus-petraea, quercus-robur},
    number = {3},
    pages = {555--567},
    posted-at = {2015-07-31 09:17:59},
    priority = {2},
    publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
    title = {Growth decrease and mortality of oak floodplain forests as a response to change of water regime and climate},
    url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10342-015-0871-5},
    volume = {134},
    year = {2015}
}

@article{franksEvolutionaryPlasticResponses2014,
  title = {Evolutionary and Plastic Responses to Climate Change in Terrestrial Plant Populations},
  author = {Franks, Steven J. and Weber, Jennifer J. and Aitken, Sally N.},
  year = {2014},
  month = jan,
  volume = {7},
  pages = {123--139},
  issn = {1752-4571},
  doi = {10.1111/eva.12112},
  abstract = {As climate change progresses, we are observing widespread changes in phenotypes in many plant populations. Whether these phenotypic changes are directly caused by climate change, and whether they result from phenotypic plasticity or evolution, are active areas of investigation. Here, we review terrestrial plant studies addressing these questions. Plastic and evolutionary responses to climate change are clearly occurring. Of the 38 studies that met our criteria for inclusion, all found plastic or evolutionary responses, with 26 studies showing both. These responses, however, may be insufficient to keep pace with climate change, as indicated by eight of 12 studies that examined this directly. There is also mixed evidence for whether evolutionary responses are adaptive, and whether they are directly caused by contemporary climatic changes. We discuss factors that will likely influence the extent of plastic and evolutionary responses, including patterns of environmental changes, species' life history characteristics including generation time and breeding system, and degree and direction of gene flow. Future studies with standardized methodologies, especially those that use direct approaches assessing responses to climate change over time, and sharing of data through public databases, will facilitate better predictions of the capacity for plant populations to respond to rapid climate change.},
  journal = {Evolutionary Applications},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14310132,climate-change,complexity,limiting-factor,non-linearity,phenotypes-vs-genotypes,phenotypic-plasticity,trade-offs,vegetation},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-14310132},
  number = {1}
}

@article{schiermeierIPCCReportFire2014,
  title = {{{IPCC}} Report under Fire},
  author = {Schiermeier, Quirin},
  year = {2014},
  month = apr,
  volume = {508},
  pages = {298},
  issn = {0028-0836},
  doi = {10.1038/508298a},
  abstract = {Critics attack panel's lack of specific guidance on how countries should lower emissions. [Excerpt] [...] The document, a policy summary prepared by Working Group III of the IPCC, is the third instalment of the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report. It follows reports on the science of climate and the impacts of climate change, released in the past few months. Compiled by hundreds of lead and reviewing authors over several years, the report warns that without substantial policy and technology changes, the world is heading towards dangerous temperature rises. Its focus is therefore on the technological and economic options for stabilizing atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations at acceptable levels. [...] The report, released at a packed press conference in a Berlin hotel, details how annual emissions have increased from 27 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2 equivalent in 1970 to 49\,Gt in 2010 (see 'Who emits what?'). Emissions may now have reached more than 52\,Gt per year. The report adds that to have a 50\,\% chance of keeping the global surface-temperature increase below the UN target of 2\,\textdegree C, humans must not release more than an additional 1,550\,Gt of greenhouse gases before 2100. At current rates, that limit will be exceeded before 2050.

The working group also warns that developed countries' emissions targets for 2020 -- agreed at a 2010 climate summit in Cancun, Mexico -- are inconsistent with the 2\,\textdegree C ceiling, which was set at the same summit. '' Meeting this goal would require further substantial reductions beyond 2020,'' the report finds. 

The IPCC also acknowledges that the renewable-energy industry is making substantial gains in performance and cost reductions. But it notes that growing global energy demand and an increase in coal's share of the global fuel mix in recent years threaten to thwart mitigation efforts. [...] Some researchers have long argued for a more pragmatic and diversified approach to climate change. For example, one group wrote in a policy paper in 2010 that fostering technological progress while focusing on poverty reduction -- an estimated 1.5 billion people have no access to electricity -- might ultimately prove more effective than international treaties such as the expired Kyoto Protocol on climate change (G. Prins et al. The Hartwell Paper; LSE, 2010). [...] Most critics agree that the IPCC, despite not having a remit to prescribe policies, has managed to strengthen the links between science and politics. '' The process forces policy-makers to really engage with the science underlying climate change''},
  journal = {Nature},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13140128,climate-change,communicating-uncertainty,complexity,environmental-policy,ipcc,mitigation,multi-stakeholder-decision-making,science-based-decision-making,science-policy-interface,scientific-communication},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13140128},
  number = {7496}
}

@article{yang500yearTreeringRecord2014,
  title = {A 3,500-Year Tree-Ring Record of Annual Precipitation on the Northeastern {{Tibetan Plateau}}},
  author = {Yang, Bao and Qin, Chun and Wang, Jianglin and He, Minhui and Melvin, Thomas M. and Osborn, Timothy J. and Briffa, Keith R.},
  year = {2014},
  month = feb,
  volume = {111},
  pages = {2903--2908},
  issn = {1091-6490},
  doi = {10.1073/pnas.1319238111},
  abstract = {[Significance] 

This paper describes the production and climatic interpretation of a tree-ring width chronology that is currently the longest, absolutely dated series produced for the northeastern Tibetan Plateau and one of the longest in the world. The method of chronology construction enables comparison of variations in precipitation totals over long timescales as well as shorter periods. Precipitation in this region during the last 50 years has been historically high -- likely higher than for any equivalent length period in at least 3,500 years, even when considering the chronology and interpretational uncertainty. Notable dry periods occurred in the 4th century BCE and in the second half of the 15th century CE. [Abstract] 

An annually resolved and absolutely dated ring-width chronology spanning 4,500 y has been constructed using subfossil, archaeological, and living-tree juniper samples from the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. The chronology represents changing mean annual precipitation and is most reliable after 1500 B.C. Reconstructed precipitation for this period displays a trend toward more moist conditions: the last 10-, 25-, and 50-y periods all appear to be the wettest in at least three and a half millennia. Notable historical dry periods occurred in the 4th century BCE and in the second half of the 15th century CE. The driest individual year reconstructed (since 1500 B.C.) is 1048 B.C., whereas the wettest is 2010. Precipitation variability in this region appears not to be associated with inferred changes in Asian monsoon intensity during recent millennia. The chronology displays a statistical association with the multidecadal and longer-term variability of reconstructed mean Northern Hemisphere temperatures over the last two millennia. This suggests that any further large-scale warming might be associated with even greater moisture supply in this region.},
  journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13072253,china,climate-change,field-measurements,forest-resources,himalayan-region,paleo-climate,past-observations,precipitation,temperature,tibet},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13072253},
  number = {8}
}

@article{averillMycorrhizamediatedCompetitionPlants2014,
  title = {Mycorrhiza-Mediated Competition between Plants and Decomposers Drives Soil Carbon Storage},
  author = {Averill, Colin and Turner, Benjamin L. and Finzi, Adrien C.},
  year = {2014},
  month = jan,
  volume = {505},
  pages = {543--545},
  issn = {0028-0836},
  doi = {10.1038/nature12901},
  abstract = {Soil contains more carbon than the atmosphere and vegetation combined. Understanding the mechanisms controlling the accumulation and stability of soil carbon is critical to predicting the Earth's future climate. Recent studies suggest that decomposition of soil organic matter is often limited by nitrogen availability to microbes and that plants, via their fungal symbionts, compete directly with free-living decomposers for nitrogen. Ectomycorrhizal and ericoid mycorrhizal (EEM) fungi produce nitrogen-degrading enzymes, allowing them greater access to organic nitrogen sources than arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi. This leads to the theoretical prediction that soil carbon storage is greater in ecosystems dominated by EEM fungi than in those dominated by AM fungi. Using global data sets, we show that soil in ecosystems dominated by EEM-associated plants contains 70\,\% more carbon per unit nitrogen than soil in ecosystems dominated by AM-associated plants. The effect of mycorrhizal type on soil carbon is independent of, and of far larger consequence than, the effects of net primary production, temperature, precipitation and soil clay content. Hence the effect of mycorrhizal type on soil carbon content holds at the global scale. This finding links the functional traits of mycorrhizal fungi to carbon storage at ecosystem-to-global scales, suggesting that plant-decomposer competition for nutrients exerts a fundamental control over the terrestrial carbon cycle.},
  journal = {Nature},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12903789,~to-add-doi-URL,carbon-stock,climate-change,forest-resources,mycorrhizal-fungi,soil-carbon,soil-resources,vegetation},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-12903789},
  number = {7484}
}

@article{hannahFinegrainModelingSpecies2014,
  title = {Fine-Grain Modeling of Species' Response to Climate Change: Holdouts, Stepping-Stones, and Microrefugia},
  author = {Hannah, Lee and Flint, Lorraine and Syphard, Alexandra D. and Moritz, Max A. and Buckley, Lauren B. and McCullough, Ian M.},
  year = {2014},
  month = jul,
  volume = {29},
  pages = {390--397},
  issn = {0169-5347},
  doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2014.04.006},
  abstract = {[Highlights]

[::] Understanding of microclimates may revolutionize climate change biology. [::] Microrefugia will be rare under future climate change. [::] Conservation strategies should focus on managing holdouts and stepping stones.

[Abstract]

Microclimates have played a critical role in past species range shifts, suggesting that they could be important in biological response to future change. Terms are needed to discuss these future effects. We propose that populations occupying microclimates be referred to as holdouts, stepping stones and microrefugia. A holdout is a population that persists in a microclimate for a limited period of time under deteriorating climatic conditions. Stepping stones successively occupy microclimates in a way that facilitates species' range shifts. Microrefugia refer to populations that persist in microclimates through a period of unfavorable climate. Because climate projections show that return to present climate is highly unlikely, conservation strategies need to be built around holdouts and stepping stones, rather than low-probability microrefugia.},
  journal = {Trends in Ecology \& Evolution},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13660424,~to-add-doi-URL,climate-change,climate-refugia,definition,ecology,habitat-suitability,holdouts,local-scale,migration-pattern,multi-scale,niche-modelling,species-dispersal,stepping-stones,terminology},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13660424},
  number = {7}
}

@article{jeongIntensifiedArcticWarming2014,
  title = {Intensified {{Arctic}} Warming under Greenhouse Warming by Vegetation-Atmosphere-Sea Ice Interaction},
  author = {Jeong, Jee-Hoon and Kug, Jong-Seong and Linderholm, Hans W. and Chen, Deliang and Kim, Baek-Min and Jun, Sang-Yoon},
  year = {2014},
  month = sep,
  volume = {9},
  pages = {094007+},
  issn = {1748-9326},
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/9/9/094007},
  abstract = {Observations and modeling studies indicate that enhanced vegetation activities over high latitudes under an elevated CO 2 concentration accelerate surface warming by reducing the surface albedo. In this study, we suggest that vegetation-atmosphere-sea ice interactions over high latitudes can induce an additional amplification of Arctic warming. Our hypothesis is tested by a series of coupled vegetation-climate model simulations under 2xCO 2 environments. The increased vegetation activities over high latitudes under a 2xCO 2 condition induce additional surface warming and turbulent heat fluxes to the atmosphere, which are transported to the Arctic through the atmosphere. This causes additional sea-ice melting and upper-ocean warming during the warm season. As a consequence, the Arctic and high-latitude warming is greatly amplified in the following winter and spring, which further promotes vegetation activities the following year. We conclude that the vegetation-atmosphere-sea ice interaction gives rise to additional positive feedback of the Arctic amplification.},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13371755,arctic-region,climate-change,feedback,global-warming,non-linearity,transdisciplinary-research,vegetation},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13371755},
  number = {9}
}

@article{glotterEvaluatingUtilityDynamical2014,
  title = {Evaluating the Utility of Dynamical Downscaling in Agricultural Impacts Projections},
  author = {Glotter, Michael and Elliott, Joshua and McInerney, David and Best, Neil and Foster, Ian and Moyer, Elisabeth J.},
  year = {2014},
  month = jun,
  volume = {111},
  pages = {8776--8781},
  issn = {1091-6490},
  doi = {10.1073/pnas.1314787111},
  abstract = {Interest in estimating the potential socioeconomic costs of climate change has led to the increasing use of dynamical downscaling -- nested modeling in which regional climate models (RCMs) are driven with general circulation model (GCM) output -- to produce fine-spatial-scale climate projections for impacts assessments. We evaluate here whether this computationally intensive approach significantly alters projections of agricultural yield, one of the greatest concerns under climate change. Our results suggest that it does not. We simulate US maize yields under current and future CO2 concentrations with the widely used Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer crop model, driven by a variety of climate inputs including two GCMs, each in turn downscaled by two RCMs. We find that no climate model output can reproduce yields driven by observed climate unless a bias correction is first applied. Once a bias correction is applied, GCM- and RCM-driven US maize yields are essentially indistinguishable in all scenarios ({$<$}10\,\% discrepancy, equivalent to error from observations). Although RCMs correct some GCM biases related to fine-scale geographic features, errors in yield are dominated by broad-scale (100s of kilometers) GCM systematic errors that RCMs cannot compensate for. These results support previous suggestions that the benefits for impacts assessments of dynamically downscaling raw GCM output may not be sufficient to justify its computational demands. Progress on fidelity of yield projections may benefit more from continuing efforts to understand and minimize systematic error in underlying climate projections.},
  journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13208270,agricultural-resources,assessment,bias-correction,climate-change,climate-projections,downscaling,dynamic-downscaling,global-climate-models,modelling,modelling-uncertainty,prediction-bias,premature-optimization,regional-climate-models,uncertainty},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13208270},
  number = {24}
}

@article{qiuDoubleThreatTibet2014,
  title = {Double Threat for {{Tibet}}},
  author = {Qiu, Jane},
  year = {2014},
  month = aug,
  volume = {512},
  pages = {240--241},
  issn = {0028-0836},
  doi = {10.1038/512240a},
  abstract = {Climate change and human development are jeopardizing the plateau's fragile environment.},
  journal = {Nature},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13331654,anthropogenic-changes,anthropogenic-impacts,climate-change,desertification,droughts,precipitation,spatial-pattern,temperature,tibet,urban-areas},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13331654},
  number = {7514}
}

@article{pengAfforestationChinaCools2014,
  title = {Afforestation in {{China}} Cools Local Land Surface Temperature},
  author = {Peng, Shu-Shi and Piao, Shilong and Zeng, Zhenzhong and Ciais, Philippe and Zhou, Liming and Li, Laurent Z. X. and Myneni, Ranga B. and Yin, Yi and Zeng, Hui},
  year = {2014},
  month = feb,
  volume = {111},
  pages = {2915--2919},
  issn = {1091-6490},
  doi = {10.1073/pnas.1315126111},
  abstract = {[Significance] 

China has the largest afforested area in the world. Afforestation not only contributes to increased carbon storage but also alters local albedo and turbulent energy fluxes, which offers feedback on the local and regional climate. This study presents previously unidentified observational evidence of the effect of large-scale afforestation on land surface temperature (LST) in China. Afforestation decreases daytime LST, because of enhanced evapotranspiration, and increases nighttime LST. This nighttime warming tends to offset daytime cooling in dry regions. These results suggest it is necessary to carefully consider where to plant trees to achieve potential climatic benefits in future afforestation projects.  [Abstract] 

China has the largest afforested area in the world ({$\sim$}62 million hectares in 2008), and these forests are carbon sinks. The climatic effect of these new forests depends on how radiant and turbulent energy fluxes over these plantations modify surface temperature. For instance, a lower albedo may cause warming, which negates the climatic benefits of carbon sequestration. Here, we used satellite measurements of land surface temperature (LST) from planted forests and adjacent grasslands or croplands in China to understand how afforestation affects LST. Afforestation is found to decrease daytime LST by about 1.1 {$\pm$} 0.5 \textdegree C (mean {$\pm$} 1 SD) and to increase nighttime LST by about 0.2 {$\pm$} 0.5 \textdegree C, on average. The observed daytime cooling is a result of increased evapotranspiration. The nighttime warming is found to increase with latitude and decrease with average rainfall. Afforestation in dry regions therefore leads to net warming, as daytime cooling is offset by nighttime warming. Thus, it is necessary to carefully consider where to plant trees to realize potential climatic benefits in future afforestation projects.},
  journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13072275,afforestation,china,climate-change,feedback,forest-resources,land-use,land-use-driven-climate-change,latitude,non-linearity,precipitation,temperature,trade-offs},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13072275},
  number = {8}
}

@article{ollikainenForestryBioeconomySmart2014,
  title = {Forestry in Bioeconomy - Smart Green Growth for the Humankind},
  author = {Ollikainen, Markku},
  year = {2014},
  month = may,
  volume = {29},
  pages = {360--366},
  issn = {1651-1891},
  doi = {10.1080/02827581.2014.926392},
  abstract = {This paper draws on the European Union's Bioeconomy Action Plan (BAP) to clarify the notion '' bioeconomy'' and examine how it relates to the forest sector and its current challenges. The interpretation is linked to a broader context of climate and energy policies and the ideas of green economy and green growth. It is shown that, despite its good intentions, BAP fails to link bioeconomy to the core idea of green economy and the sources of economic growth. It hardly discusses climate policies and entirely omits the land-use aspects between agriculture and forestry that are important for climate policies. An equally serious shortcoming is that BAP very vaguely recognizes the role and nature of the forest sector as a high-tech biomass utilizing sector and omits its current challenge to renew the product matrix from forest biomass as a response to the decreasing demand for paper. An overview of the topical issues in forest sector shows that it has and will have a great role in bioeconomy as a high-tech and high value-added sector producing all traditional products, bioenergy, and new forest products.},
  journal = {Scandinavian Journal of Forest Research},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14134117,bio-based-economy,bioeconomy,biomass,climate-change,economics,environmental-policy,forest-resources,technology},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-14134117},
  number = {4}
}

@article{joughinMarineIceSheet2014,
  title = {Marine Ice Sheet Collapse Potentially under Way for the {{Thwaites Glacier Basin}}, {{West Antarctica}}},
  author = {Joughin, Ian and Smith, Benjamin E. and Medley, Brooke},
  year = {2014},
  month = may,
  volume = {344},
  pages = {735--738},
  issn = {1095-9203},
  doi = {10.1126/science.1249055},
  abstract = {The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is particularly vulnerable to ocean warming-induced collapse. The Thwaites Glacier of West Antarctica is one of the largest WAIS regional contributors to sea level rise, and has been considered to be potentially unstable for many years. Joughin et al. (p. 735) used a combination of a numerical model and observations of its recent geometry and movement to investigate the stability of the Thwaites Glacier. The glacier has already entered the early stages of collapse, and rapid and irreversible collapse is likely in the next 200 to 1000 years.},
  journal = {Science},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13166867,antarctic-region,antarctic-sea-ice,climate-change,computational-science,instability,modelling,sea-level,uncertainty,west-antartica},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13166867},
  number = {6185}
}

@article{lindnerClimateChangeEuropean2014,
  title = {Climate Change and {{European}} Forests: What Do We Know, What Are the Uncertainties, and What Are the Implications for Forest Management?},
  author = {Lindner, Marcus and Fitzgerald, Joanne B. and Zimmermann, Niklaus E. and Reyer, Christopher and Delzon, Sylvain and {van der Maaten}, Ernst and Schelhaas, Mart-Jan and Lasch, Petra and Eggers, Jeannette and {van der Maaten-Theunissen}, Marieke and Suckow, Felicitas and Psomas, Achilleas and Poulter, Benjamin and Hanewinkel, Marc},
  year = {2014},
  month = dec,
  volume = {146},
  pages = {69--83},
  issn = {0301-4797},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.07.030},
  abstract = {[Highlights] 

[::] Uncertainty is inherent to climate change impact assessments.

[::] Extreme events are only weakly represented in many assessments.

[::] The range of possible impacts has so far been underestimated in most studies.

[::] Some general trends are common to all climate projections.

[::] Guidance is needed to interpret state-of-the-art knowledge and give helpful advice.

[Abstract] 

The knowledge about potential climate change impacts on forests is continuously expanding and some changes in growth, drought induced mortality and species distribution have been observed. However despite a significant body of research, a knowledge and communication gap exists between scientists and non-scientists as to how climate change impact scenarios can be interpreted and what they imply for European forests. It is still challenging to advise forest decision makers on how best to plan for climate change as many uncertainties and unknowns remain and it is difficult to communicate these to practitioners and other decision makers while retaining emphasis on the importance of planning for adaptation.},
  journal = {Journal of Environmental Management},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13354308,climate-change,duplicated-entry-to-be-removed,forest-management,forest-resources,habitat-suitability,niche-modelling,uncertainty},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13354308}
}

@article{dellinkConsequencesClimateChange2014a,
  title = {Consequences of Climate Change Damages for Economic Growth - {{A}} Dynamic Quantitative Assessment},
  author = {Dellink, Rob and Lanzi, Elisa and Chateau, Jean and Bosello, Francesco and Parrado, Ramiro and {de Bruin}, Kelly},
  year = {2014},
  month = jun,
  volume = {2014},
  pages = {1135+},
  issn = {1815-1973},
  doi = {10.1787/5jz2bxb8kmf3-en},
  abstract = {This report focuses on the effects of climate change impacts on economic growth. Simulations with the OECD's dynamic global general equilibrium model ENV-Linkages assess the consequences of a selected number of climate change impacts in the various world regions at the macroeconomic and sectoral level. This is complemented with an assessment of very long-run implications, using the AD-RICE model. The analysis finds that the effect of climate change impacts on annual global GDP is projected to increase over time, leading to a global GDP loss of 0.7\,\% to 2.5\,\% by 2060 for the most likely equilibrium climate sensitivity range. Underlying these annual global GDP losses are much larger sectoral and regional variations. Agricultural impacts dominate in most regions, while damages from sea level rise gradually become more important. Negative economic consequences are especially large in South and South-East Asia whereas other regions will be less affected and, in some cases, benefit thanks to adjustments from international trade. Emissions to 2060 will have important consequences in later decades and centuries. Simulations with the AD-RICE model suggest that if emissions continue to grow after 2060, annual damages of climate change could reach 1.5\%-4.8\,\% of GDP by the end of the century. Some impacts and risks from climate change have not been quantified in this study, including extreme weather events, water stress and large-scale disruptions. These will potentially have large economic consequences, and on balance the costs of inaction presented here likely underestimate the full costs of climate change impacts. More research is needed to assess them as well as the various uncertainties and risks involved. However, this should not delay policy action, but rather induce policy frameworks that are able to deal with new information and with the fact that by their nature some uncertainties and risks will never be resolved.},
  journal = {OECD Economics Department Working Papers},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13391619,~to-add-doi-URL,agricultural-resources,assessment,climate-change,economic-impacts,global-scale,sea-level},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13391619}
}

@article{emanuelDownscalingCMIP5Climate2013,
  title = {Downscaling {{CMIP5}} Climate Models Shows Increased Tropical Cyclone Activity over the 21st Century},
  author = {Emanuel, Kerry A.},
  year = {2013},
  month = jul,
  volume = {110},
  pages = {12219--12224},
  issn = {1091-6490},
  doi = {10.1073/pnas.1301293110},
  abstract = {A recently developed technique for simulating large [O(104)] numbers of tropical cyclones in climate states described by global gridded data is applied to simulations of historical and future climate states simulated by six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) global climate models. Tropical cyclones downscaled from the climate of the period 1950-2005 are compared with those of the 21st century in simulations that stipulate that the radiative forcing from greenhouse gases increases by over preindustrial values. In contrast to storms that appear explicitly in most global models, the frequency of downscaled tropical cyclones increases during the 21st century in most locations. The intensity of such storms, as measured by their maximum wind speeds, also increases, in agreement with previous results. Increases in tropical cyclone activity are most prominent in the western North Pacific, but are evident in other regions except for the southwestern Pacific. The increased frequency of events is consistent with increases in a genesis potential index based on monthly mean global model output. These results are compared and contrasted with other inferences concerning the effect of global warming on tropical cyclones.},
  journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12594519,atmosphere,climate-change,climate-extremes,climate-projections,cyclone,global-scale,meteorology,windstorm},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-12594519},
  number = {30}
}

@article{carnicerLargescaleRecruitmentLimitation2013,
  title = {Large-Scale Recruitment Limitation in {{Mediterranean}} Pines: The Role of {{Quercus}} Ilex and Forest Successional Advance as Key Regional Drivers},
  author = {Carnicer, Jofre and Coll, Marta and Pons, Xavier and Ninyerola, Miquel and Vayreda, Jordi and Pe{\~n}uelas, Josep},
  year = {2013},
  month = oct,
  pages = {n/a},
  issn = {1466-8238},
  doi = {10.1111/geb.12111},
  abstract = {Aim Large-scale patterns of limitations in tree recruitment remain poorly described in the Mediterranean Basin, and this information is required to assess the impacts of global warming on forests. Here, we unveil the existence of opposite trends of recruitment limitation between the dominant genera Quercus and Pinus on a large scale and identify the key ecological drivers of these diverging trends. Location Spain Methods We gathered data from the Spanish National Forest inventory to assess recruitment trends for the dominant species (Pinus halepensis, Pinus pinea, Pinus pinaster, Pinus nigra, Pinus sylvestris, Pinus uncinata, Quercus suber, Quercus ilex, Quercus petraea, Quercus robur, Quercus faginea and Quercus pyrenaica). We assessed the direct and indirect drivers of recruitment by applying Bayesian structural equation modelling techniques. Results Severe limitations in recruitment were observed across extensive areas for all Pinus species studied, with recruitment failure affecting 54-71\,\% of the surveyed plots. In striking contrast, Quercus species expanded into 41\,\% of the plots surveyed compared to only 10\,\% for Pinus and had a lower local recruitment failure (29\,\% of Quercus localities compared to 63\,\% for Pinus species). Bayesian structural equation models highlighted the key role of the presence of Q.\,ilex saplings and the increase in the basal area of Q.\,ilex in limiting recruitment in five Pinus species. The recruitment of P.\,sylvestris and P.\,nigra showed the most negative trends and was negatively associated with the impacts of fire. Main conclusions This study identified Q.\,ilex, the most widespread species in this area, as a key driver of recruitment shifts on a large scale, negatively affecting most pine species with the advance of forest succession. These results highlight that the future expansion/contraction of Q.\,ilex stands with ongoing climate change will be a key process indirectly controlling the demographic responses of Pinus species in the Mediterranean Basin.},
  journal = {Global Ecology and Biogeography},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12651320,anthropogenic-changes,anthropogenic-unsustainable-species-distribution,climate-change,ecosystem-invasibility,forest-resources,global-warming,invasive-species,mediterranean-region,pinus-halepensis,pinus-nigra,pinus-pinaster,pinus-pinea,pinus-sylvestris,pinus-uncinata,plantation,potential-habitat,quercus-faginea,quercus-ilex,quercus-petraea,quercus-pyrenaica,quercus-robur,quercus-suber,spain,sustainability},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-12651320}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@inproceedings{ citeulike:12378515,
  abstract = {The {JRC} {PESETA} {II} study integrates the consequences of several separate climate change impacts into a macroeconomic {CGE} model. This enables comparison of the different impacts based on common metrics (household welfare and economic activity). The study uses a large set of climate model runs (twelve) and impact categories (agriculture, energy demand, river floods, sea-level rise, forest fires, transport infrastructure).
The results show that there is a wide dispersion of impacts across {EU} regions, with strong geographical asymmetries, depending on the specific impact category and climate future. For instance, Northern Central Europe has negative impacts mainly related to sea level rise and river floods while Southern Europe is affected mainly by agriculture. The study also explores the significance of transboundary effects (where climate change causes economic damages outside the region directly affected).},
  author = {Ciscar, J. C. and Feyen, L. and Soria, A. and Lavalle, C. and Perry, M. and Raes, F. and Nemry, F. and Demirel, H. and Rozsai, M. and Dosio, A. and Donatelli, M. and Srivastava, A. and Fumagalli, D. and Zucchini, A. and Shrestha, S. and Ciaian, P. and Himics, M. and Van Doorslaer, B. and Barrios, S. and Ib́{a}ñez, N. and Rojas, R. and Bianchi, A. and Dowling, P. and Camia, A. and Libert̀{a}, G. and San-Miguel-Ayanz, J. and de Rigo, D. and Caudullo, G. and Barredo, J. I. and Paci, D. and Pycroft, J. and Saveyn, B. and Van Regemorter, D. and Revesz, T. and Mubareka, S. and Baranzelli, C. and Rocha Gomes, C. and Lung, T. and Ibarreta, D.},
  booktitle = {Impacts World 2013 - International Conference on Climate Change Effects},
  citeulike-article-id = {12378515},
  citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://www.climate-impacts-2013.org/files/cwi_ciscar.pdf},
  citeulike-linkout-1 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.2312/pik.2013.001},
  citeulike-linkout-2 = {http://scholar.google.it/scholar?cluster=3554762681150763424},
  citeulike-linkout-3 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.2312/pik.2013.001},
  citeulike-linkout-4 = {http://www.climate-impacts-2013.org/files/cwi_ciscar.pdf},
  doi = {10.2312/pik.2013.001},
  keywords = {anthropogenic-impacts, assessment, climate, climate-change, economic-impacts, economics, europe, european-union, integrated-natural-resources-modelling-and-management, integration-techniques, multiauthor},
  location = {Postdam, Germany},
  month = {May},
  organization = {Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) e. V.},
  pages = {87--96},
  posted-at = {2013-05-30 01:23:43},
  priority = {2},
  title = {Climate impacts in Europe: an integrated economic assessment},
  url = {http://www.climate-impacts-2013.org/files/cwi_ciscar.pdf},
  year = {2013}
}

@article{andersenKeyPhraseTrends2013,
  title = {Key Phrase Trends in Climate Change Research and Communication},
  author = {Andersen, Theresa},
  year = {2013},
  volume = {6},
  pages = {442835+},
  abstract = {Summary.

The media plays an important role in communicating climate change science to the public. Due to various agendas or misinterpretation, the media does not always report research as intended by the scientific source. It has been suggested that terminology itself influences perceptions of climate issues. In this study, newspapers, peer-reviewed research articles and National Science Foundation (NSF) grants were analyzed for trends in the key phrases 'climate change' (CC) and 'global warming' (GW). CC is arguably the more meaningful term because it facilitates communication between scientists, the media, and the general public and it conveys that the range of risks associated with a warming climate are not limited to temperature alone. Results indicate that the media preferentially uses the term GW while research tends to use CC. Three high-circulation newspapers exhibit similar trends in usage over time and have recently increased usage of CC. All data sources indicate climate change discourse peaked around 2008 to 2011, however, this trend may be a result of the discussion turning from general climate change to specific risks. Additional key phrase searches such as 'glacier melt' and 'sea level rise' may yield different results.},
  journal = {IEEE Earthzine},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12214056,climate-change,global-warming,science-policy-interface,scientific-communication,terminology},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-12214056},
  number = {1}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{citeulike:11354245,
    abstract = {As the climate changes, drought may reduce tree productivity and survival across many forest ecosystems; however, the relative influence of specific climate parameters on forest decline is poorly understood. We derive a forest drought-stress index ({FDSI}) for the southwestern United States using a comprehensive tree-ring data set representing {AD} 1000–2007. The {FDSI} is approximately equally influenced by the warm-season vapour-pressure deficit (largely controlled by temperature) and cold-season precipitation, together explaining 82\% of the {FDSI} variability. Correspondence between the {FDSI} and measures of forest productivity, mortality, bark-beetle outbreak and wildfire validate the {FDSI} as a holistic forest-vigour indicator. If the vapour-pressure deficit continues increasing as projected by climate models, the mean forest drought-stress by the 2050s will exceed that of the most severe droughts in the past 1,000 years. Collectively, the results foreshadow twenty-first-century changes in forest structures and compositions, with transition of forests in the southwestern United States, and perhaps water-limited forests globally, towards distributions unfamiliar to modern civilization.},
    author = {Park Williams, A. and Allen, Craig D. and Macalady, Alison K. and Griffin, Daniel and Woodhouse, Connie A. and Meko, David M. and Swetnam, Thomas W. and Rauscher, Sara A. and Seager, Richard and Grissino-Mayer, Henri D. and Dean, Jeffrey S. and Cook, Edward R. and Gangodagamage, Chandana and Cai, Michael and McDowell, Nate G.},
    citeulike-article-id = {11354245},
    citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1693},
    citeulike-linkout-1 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1693},
    day = {30},
    doi = {10.1038/nclimate1693},
    issn = {1758-678X},
    journal = {Nature Clim. Change},
    keywords = {climate-change, climate-projections, droughts, forest-resources, global-warming, temperature},
    month = sep,
    number = {3},
    pages = {292--297},
    posted-at = {2012-10-02 23:14:36},
    priority = {2},
    publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
    title = {Temperature as a potent driver of regional forest drought stress and tree mortality},
    url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1693},
    volume = {3},
    year = {2013}
}

@inproceedings{estreguilIntegratedModelingLarge2013,
  title = {Integrated Modeling of Large Scale Forest Patterns and Connectivity of Protected Areas and Relevance in the Context of Ecosystem Services and Climate Change},
  booktitle = {{{FORECOM}}: {{Forest}} Cover Changes in Mountainous Regions - Drivers, Trajectories and Implications},
  author = {Estreguil, Christine and Caudullo, Giovanni and {de Rigo}, Daniele and Whitmore, Ceri and {San-Miguel-Ayanz}, Jes{\'u}s},
  year = {2013},
  publisher = {{Institute of Geography and Spatial Management of the Jagiellonian University}},
  abstract = {The mitigation of ecosystem fragmentation is important in Target 2 of the new European Biodiversity strategy to 2020, aiming at the maintenance and enhancement of ecosystem services (e.g. habitat provision, disturbance regulation, climate change mitigation). Better knowledge on patterns, fragmentation processes and functional connectivity of focal ecosystem is needed within and between protected areas as well as in the wider country side.  An overview of JRC activities is given on tools, models and applications for a European-wide improved and harmonised reporting on forest patterns and connectivity (fragmentation). The recently available generic, reproducible and integrated characterisation of patterns based on three models and a set of indices is presented. National profiles of forest pattern in the wider country side are shown on forest morphological shapes, fragmentation landscape pattern, edge interfaces and connectivity. The connectivity of Natura2000 forest sites is then computed in few countries (Spain, Belgium, Germany and Poland), and results allow for comparison of the connectivity index value across countries and the identification of key-sites and gaps in connectivity. The presentation finally introduces the dedicated pattern web map viewer which is now available from the European Forest Data Centre (EFDAC) for data viewing and query.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12238517,climate-change,connectivity,ecosystem-services,environmental-modelling,forest-resources,integrated-modelling,integration-techniques,landscape-modelling,spatial-pattern},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-12238517}
}

@article{boydConsequenceTreePests2013,
  title = {The Consequence of Tree Pests and Diseases for Ecosystem Services},
  author = {Boyd, I. L. and {Freer-Smith}, P. H. and Gilligan, C. A. and Godfray, H. C. J.},
  year = {2013},
  month = nov,
  volume = {342},
  pages = {1235773+},
  issn = {1095-9203},
  doi = {10.1126/science.1235773},
  abstract = {[Structured Abstract] [::Background]

Trees are major components of many terrestrial ecosystems and are grown in managed plantations and orchards to provide a variety of economically important products, including timber, pulp, fiber, and food. They are subject to a wide range of pests and diseases, of which the most important causative agents are viruses, bacteria, fungi, oomycetes, and insect herbivores. Research on tree pests and diseases has had a historical focus on trees of direct economic importance. However, some epidemics and infestations have damaged and killed common trees that are integral parts of natural ecosystems. These have harmed valuable landscapes and highlighted the wide-ranging consequences arising from tree pests and diseases. There is also growing concern that aspects of globalization -- in particular, higher volumes and new forms of trade -- may increase the risk of disease spread.

[::Advances]

We review the challenges in maintaining tree health in natural and managed ecosystems. It is argued that it is helpful to consider explicitly the consequences of pests and diseases for the full range of ecosystem services provided by trees. In addition to forest and orchard products, tree pests and diseases can affect the ability of forests to sequester and store carbon, reduce flood risk, and purify water. They can affect the biodiversity supported by trees and the recreational and cultural values accorded to woodland by people. Many of these benefits are uncosted and enjoyed by different classes of stakeholders, which raises difficult questions about who should be responsible for measures to protect tree health. Changes in the risk of pest and disease introduction, the increasing prevalence of genetic reassortment leading to novel disease threats, and the potential role of climate change are all highlighted.

[::Outlook]

Modern pest and disease management is based on an extensive science base that is rapidly developing, spurred in particular by modern molecular technologies. A research priority is to build a better understanding of why certain pathogens and insects become major pests and diseases. This will involve a better understanding of the molecular basis of pathogenicity and herbivory, as will ecological insights into why some species reach epidemic prevalence or abundance. It will also help anticipate which species may become a problem if they are transported to new geographical regions, recombine with other organisms, or experience new climatic conditions. However, identifying all species that may become pests will be impossible, and the Review stresses the importance of risk management at the '' pathway of introduction'' level, especially when modern trade practices provide potential new routes of entry. Last, when ecosystem services are provided by woods and forests rather than individual tree species, we need to understand better the consequences of pests and diseases that attack or feed on particular species.

[Dead Wood]

Trees can be affected by a wide variety of diseases caused by insects, fungi, and other pathogens. Such diseases often make the headlines -- particularly when iconic tree species are affected -- for example, in the case of the ash dieback currently spreading through Europe, or the chestnut blight that devastated American chestnut trees. But what is the effect of these diseases on ecosystem services performed by trees in natural and managed ecosystems? Boyd et al. (p. 10.1126/science.1235773 ) review the spread of tree diseases, as a result of globalization and climate change, and analyze the resulting damage to timber and fruit production, to climate regulation, and to parks and woodlands caused by tree diseases.

[Abstract]

Trees and forests provide a wide variety of ecosystem services in addition to timber, food, and other provisioning services. New approaches to pest and disease management are needed that take into account these multiple services and the different stakeholders they benefit, as well as the likelihood of greater threats in the future resulting from globalization and climate change. These considerations will affect priorities for both basic and applied research and how trade and phytosanitary regulations are formulated.},
  journal = {Science},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12925598,~to-add-doi-URL,bioeconomy,climate-change,disturbances,ecology,economic-impacts,ecosystem-resilience,ecosystem-services,forest-pests,forest-resources,global-scale,nonmarket-impacts,plant-pests,resilience,sustainability},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-12925598},
  number = {6160}
}

@article{arnellGlobalAssessmentEffects2013,
  title = {A Global Assessment of the Effects of Climate Policy on the Impacts of Climate Change},
  author = {Arnell, N. W. and Lowe, J. A. and Brown, S. and Gosling, S. N. and Gottschalk, P. and Hinkel, J. and {Lloyd-Hughes}, B. and Nicholls, R. J. and Osborn, T. J. and Osborne, T. M. and Rose, G. A. and Smith, P. and Warren, R. F.},
  year = {2013},
  month = may,
  volume = {3},
  pages = {512--519},
  issn = {1758-678X},
  doi = {10.1038/nclimate1793},
  abstract = {This study presents the first global-scale multi-sectoral regional assessment of the magnitude and uncertainty in the impacts of climate change avoided by emissions policies. The analysis suggests that the most stringent emissions policy considered here -- which gives a 50\,\% chance of remaining below a 2\,\textdegree C temperature rise target -- reduces impacts by 20-65\,\% by 2100 relative to a 'business-as-usual' pathway which reaches 4\,\textdegree C, and can delay impacts by several decades. The effects of mitigation policies vary between sectors and regions, and only a few are noticeable by 2030. The impacts avoided by 2100 are more strongly influenced by the date and level at which emissions peak than the rate of decline of emissions, with an earlier and lower emissions peak avoiding more impacts. The estimated proportion of impacts avoided at the global scale is relatively robust despite uncertainty in the spatial pattern of climate change, but the absolute amount of avoided impacts is considerably more variable and therefore uncertain.},
  journal = {Nature Clim. Change},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-11894824,assessment,climate-change,global-scale,science-policy-interface},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-11894824},
  number = {5}
}

@article{hannartDisconcertingLearningClimate2013,
  title = {Disconcerting Learning on Climate Sensitivity and the Uncertain Future of Uncertainty},
  author = {Hannart, Alexis and Ghil, Michael and Dufresne, Jean-Louis and Naveau, Philippe},
  year = {2013},
  volume = {119},
  pages = {585--601},
  issn = {1573-1480},
  doi = {10.1007/s10584-013-0770-z},
  abstract = {How will our estimates of climate uncertainty evolve in the coming years, as new learning is acquired and climate research makes further progress? As a tentative contribution to this question, we argue here that the future path of climate uncertainty may itself be quite uncertain, and that our uncertainty is actually prone to increase even though we learn more about the climate system. We term disconcerting learning this somewhat counter-intuitive process in which improved knowledge generates higher uncertainty. After recalling some definitions, this concept is connected with the related concept of negative learning that was introduced earlier by Oppenheimer et al. (Clim Change 89:155-172, 2008). We illustrate disconcerting learning on several real-life examples and characterize mathematically certain general conditions for its occurrence. We show next that these conditions are met in the current state of our knowledge on climate sensitivity, and illustrate this situation based on an energy balance model of climate. We finally discuss the implications of these results on the development of adaptation and mitigation policy.},
  journal = {Climatic Change},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12515508,climate-change,communicating-uncertainty,disconcerting-learning,negative-learning,non-linearity,progressive-learning,reassuring-learning,science-policy-interface,scientific-communication,statistics,surprise,uncertainty,unknown},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-12515508},
  number = {3-4}
}

@article{caballeroStatedependentClimateSensitivity2013,
  title = {State-Dependent Climate Sensitivity in Past Warm Climates and Its Implications for Future Climate Projections},
  author = {Caballero, Rodrigo and Huber, Matthew},
  year = {2013},
  month = aug,
  volume = {110},
  pages = {14162--14167},
  issn = {1091-6490},
  doi = {10.1073/pnas.1303365110},
  abstract = {Projections of future climate depend critically on refined estimates of climate sensitivity. Recent progress in temperature proxies dramatically increases the magnitude of warming reconstructed from early Paleogene greenhouse climates and demands a close examination of the forcing and feedback mechanisms that maintained this warmth and the broad dynamic range that these paleoclimate records attest to. Here, we show that several complementary resolutions to these questions are possible in the context of model simulations using modern and early Paleogene configurations. We find that (i) changes in boundary conditions representative of slow '' Earth system'' feedbacks play an important role in maintaining elevated early Paleogene temperatures, (ii) radiative forcing by carbon dioxide deviates significantly from pure logarithmic behavior at concentrations relevant for simulation of the early Paleogene, and (iii) fast or '' Charney'' climate sensitivity in this model increases sharply as the climate warms. Thus, increased forcing and increased slow and fast sensitivity can all play a substantial role in maintaining early Paleogene warmth. This poses an equifinality problem: The same climate can be maintained by a different mix of these ingredients; however, at present, the mix cannot be constrained directly from climate proxy data. The implications of strongly state-dependent fast sensitivity reach far beyond the early Paleogene. The study of past warm climates may not narrow uncertainty in future climate projections in coming centuries because fast climate sensitivity may itself be state-dependent, but proxies and models are both consistent with significant increases in fast sensitivity with increasing temperature.},
  journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12661290,climate-change,climate-projections,earth-system,environmental-modelling,feedback,modelling,modelling-uncertainty,paleo-climate,prediction-bias,temperature,uncertainty},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-12661290},
  number = {35}
}

@article{macdougallReversingClimateWarming2013,
  title = {Reversing Climate Warming by Artificial Atmospheric Carbon-Dioxide Removal: {{Can}} a {{Holocene}}-like Climate Be Restored?},
  author = {MacDougall, Andrew H.},
  year = {2013},
  month = oct,
  volume = {40},
  pages = {5480--5485},
  issn = {0094-8276},
  doi = {10.1002/2013gl057467},
  abstract = {Most climate modelling studies of future climate have focused on the affects of carbon emissions in the present century or the long-term fate of anthropogenically emitted carbon. However, after carbon emissions cease there may be a desire to return to a '' safe" CO 2 concentration within this millennium. Realistically this implies artificially removing CO 2 from the atmosphere. In this study experiments are conducted using the University of Victoria Earth system climate model forced with novelfuture scenarios to explore the reversibility of climate warming as a response to a gradual return to pre-industrial radiative forcing. Due to hysteresis in the permafrost carbon pool the quantity of carbon that must be removed from the atmosphere is larger than the quantity that was originally emitted (115-180\,\% of original emissions). In all the reversibility simulations with a moderate climate sensitivity a climate resembling that of the Holocene can be restored by 3000 CE.},
  journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12702909,carbon-cycle,carbon-dioxide-removal,climate-change,climate-engineering,complexity,global-scale,modelling,non-linearity,scenario-analysis},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-12702909},
  number = {20}
}

@article{tavoniModelingMeetsScience2013,
  title = {Modeling Meets Science and Technology: {{An}} Introduction to a Special Issue on Negative Emissions},
  author = {Tavoni, M. and Socolow, R.},
  year = {2013},
  volume = {118},
  pages = {1--14},
  doi = {10.1007/s10584-013-0757-9},
  abstract = {This article introduces the Climatic Change special issue dedicated to negative emissions technologies, also known as carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere. CDR is the only class of mitigation options able to reduce the carbon stock in the atmosphere significantly. In this special issue CDR is explored from the perspectives of integrated assessment, technology optimization, environmental science, and political science.},
  journal = {Climatic Change},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12344745,climate-change,mitigation,negative-emissions,technology},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-12344745},
  number = {1}
}

@article{cavanaughPolewardExpansionMangroves2013,
  title = {Poleward Expansion of Mangroves Is a Threshold Response to Decreased Frequency of Extreme Cold Events},
  author = {Cavanaugh, Kyle C. and Kellner, James R. and Forde, Alexander J. and Gruner, Daniel S. and Parker, John D. and Rodriguez, Wilfrid and Feller, Ilka C.},
  year = {2013},
  month = jan,
  volume = {111},
  pages = {201315800--727},
  issn = {1091-6490},
  doi = {10.1073/pnas.1315800111},
  abstract = {[Significance] 

Coastal mangrove forests support a diverse array of associated species and provide ecosystem services to human communities. Mangroves cannot tolerate extreme freezing temperatures and so are generally limited to tropical environments. However, climate change in the form of increasing temperatures has the potential to facilitate increases in mangrove abundance near tropical-temperate transition zones. Here, we use 28 y of satellite imagery to demonstrate that increases in mangrove area have already occurred along the northeast coast of Florida. These increases correspond to decreases in the frequency of extreme cold events in this region. We also identify a temperature-related ecological threshold of -4\textdegree C. These results suggest that landscape-scale increases in mangrove area may occur in other regions where this threshold is crossed. 

[Abstract] 

Regional warming associated with climate change is linked with altered range and abundance of species and ecosystems worldwide. However, the ecological impacts of changes in the frequency of extreme events have not been as well documented, especially for coastal and marine environments. We used 28 y of satellite imagery to demonstrate that the area of mangrove forests has doubled at the northern end of their historic range on the east coast of Florida. This expansion is associated with a reduction in the frequency of '' extreme'' cold events (days colder than -4 \textdegree C), but uncorrelated with changes in mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, and land use. Our analyses provide evidence for a threshold response, with declining frequency of severe cold winter events allowing for poleward expansion of mangroves. Future warming may result in increases in mangrove cover beyond current latitudinal limits of mangrove forests, thereby altering the structure and function of these important coastal ecosystems.},
  journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12921520,climate-change,climatic-niche-shift,exotic-plants,forest-resources,global-scale,global-warming,habitat-suitability,limiting-factor,mangroves,niche-modelling,temperature,united-states},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-12921520},
  number = {2}
}

@article{hanewinkelClimateChangeMay2012,
  title = {Climate Change May Cause Severe Loss in the Economic Value of {{European}} Forest Land},
  author = {Hanewinkel, Marc and Cullmann, Dominik A. and Schelhaas, Mart-Jan and Nabuurs, Gert-Jan and Zimmermann, Niklaus E.},
  year = {2012},
  month = sep,
  volume = {3},
  pages = {203--207},
  issn = {1758-678X},
  doi = {10.1038/nclimate1687},
  abstract = {European forests, covering more than 2\,million\,km2 or 32\,\% of the land surface1, are to a large extent intensively managed and support an important timber industry. Climate change is expected to strongly affect tree species distribution within these forests2, 3. Climate and land use are undergoing rapid changes at present4, with initial range shifts already visible5. However, discussions on the consequences of biome shifts have concentrated on ecological issues6. Here we show that forecasted changes in temperature and precipitation may have severe economic consequences. On the basis of our model results, the expected value of European forest land will decrease owing to the decline of economically valuable species in the absence of effective countermeasures. We found that by 2100 -- depending on the interest rate and climate scenario applied -- this loss varies between 14 and 50\,\% (mean: 28\,\% for an interest rate of 2\%) of the present value of forest land in Europe, excluding Russia, and may total several hundred billion Euros. Our model shows that -- depending on different realizations of three climate scenarios -- by 2100, between 21 and 60\,\% (mean: 34\%) of European forest lands will be suitable only for a Mediterranean oak forest type with low economic returns for forest owners and the timber industry and reduced carbon sequestration.},
  journal = {Nature Climate Change},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-11401639,climate-change,economic-impacts,europe,forest-resources},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-11401639},
  number = {3}
}

@article{barnoskyApproachingStateShift2012,
  title = {Approaching a State Shift in {{Earth}}/'s Biosphere},
  author = {Barnosky, Anthony D. and Hadly, Elizabeth A. and Bascompte, Jordi and Berlow, Eric L. and Brown, James H. and Fortelius, Mikael and Getz, Wayne M. and Harte, John and Hastings, Alan and Marquet, Pablo A. and Martinez, Neo D. and Mooers, Arne and Roopnarine, Peter and Vermeij, Geerat and Williams, John W. and Gillespie, Rosemary and Kitzes, Justin and Marshall, Charles and Matzke, Nicholas and Mindell, David P. and Revilla, Eloy and Smith, Adam B.},
  year = {2012},
  month = jun,
  volume = {486},
  pages = {52--58},
  issn = {0028-0836},
  doi = {10.1038/nature11018},
  abstract = {Localized ecological systems are known to shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another when they are forced across critical thresholds. Here we review evidence that the global ecosystem as a whole can react in the same way and is approaching a planetary-scale critical transition as a result of human influence. The plausibility of a planetary-scale  tipping point  highlights the need to improve biological forecasting by detecting early warning signs of critical transitions on global as well as local scales, and by detecting feedbacks that promote such transitions. It is also necessary to address root causes of how humans are forcing biological changes.},
  journal = {Nature},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-10753680,climate-change,global-scale,irreversibility,multiauthor,state-shift,tipping-point},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-10753680},
  number = {7401}
}

@article{sitziaPlantSpeciesDiversity2012,
  title = {Plant Species Diversity in Alien Black Locust Stands: {{A}} Paired Comparison with Native Stands across a North-{{Mediterranean}} Range Expansion},
  author = {Sitzia, Tommaso and Campagnaro, Thomas and Dainese, Matteo and Cierjacks, Arne},
  year = {2012},
  month = dec,
  volume = {285},
  pages = {85--91},
  issn = {0378-1127},
  doi = {10.1016/j.foreco.2012.08.016},
  abstract = {Black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia L.) is a widespread alien tree species commonly thought to influence plant assemblages. The aim of this study was to compare the plant diversity between black locust and native recent secondary stands within the European Mediterranean Mountains environmental zone. Spontaneous reforestation was detected by comparing historical aerial photographs and the most recent images. Distributed throughout a 2700~km2 hilly and piedmont area, 32 black locust and 32 paired native stands were selected and all vascular plant species were surveyed in a 100~m2 area. Analyses of the \^I{$\pm$} and \^I{$^2$}-diversity were performed separately for six identified plant groups. Despite a clear difference in the tree diversity between the black locust and native recent secondary stands and a homogenisation of the tree layer by the black locust stands, we found only inconsistent hints for homogenisation of the ground-layer vegetation by the black locust stands. There is no evidence to suggest that the presence of black locust in recent secondary stands plays a major role in shaping the diversity of the understory plant groups compared to native stands. \^a–\textordmasculine{} A regional sample of 64 alien vs. native pairs of tree communities were surveyed. \^a–\textordmasculine{} Black locust negatively influenced \^I{$\pm$} and \^I{$^2$} tree species diversity. \^a–\textordmasculine{} Compared to native stands, black locust influence on understory was negligible. \^a–\textordmasculine{} Black locust had a slight homogenisation effect on ground-layer species abundance.},
  journal = {Forest Ecology and Management},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-11265007,biodiversity,climate-change,forest-resources,invasive-species,mediterranean-region,robinia-pseudoacacia},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-11265007}
}

@article{reichDecadelongSoilNitrogen2012,
  title = {Decade-Long Soil Nitrogen Constraint on the {{CO2}} Fertilization of Plant Biomass},
  author = {Reich, Peter B. and Hobbie, Sarah E.},
  year = {2012},
  month = sep,
  volume = {advance online publication},
  issn = {1758-678X},
  doi = {10.1038/nclimate1694},
  abstract = {The stimulation of plant growth by elevated CO2 concentration has been widely observed. Such fertilization, and associated carbon storage, could dampen future increases in atmospheric CO2 levels and associated climate warming1. However, the CO2 fertilization of plant biomass may be sensitive to nitrogen supply2, 3, 4. Herein we show that in the latest decade of a long-term perennial grassland experiment, low ambient soil nitrogen availability constrained the positive response of plant biomass to elevated CO2, a result not seen in the first years (1998-2000) of the study. From 2001 to 2010, elevated CO2 stimulated plant biomass half as much under ambient as under enriched nitrogen supply, an effect mirrored over this period by more positive effects of elevated CO2 on soil nitrogen supply (net nitrogen mineralization) and plant nitrogen status under enriched than ambient nitrogen supply. The results did not strongly support either the progressive nitrogen limitation hypothesis, or the alternative hypothesis of priming of soil nitrogen release by elevated CO2. As nitrogen limitation to productivity is widespread, persistent nitrogen constraints on terrestrial responses to rising CO2 are probably pervasive. Further incorporation of such interactions into Earth system models is recommended to better predict future CO2 fertilization effects and impacts on the global carbon cycle.},
  journal = {Nature Climate Change},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-11426379,adaptation,climate-change,forest-resources,limited-flexibility-ecosystems},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-11426379}
}

@article{urbanCrucialStepRealism2012,
  title = {A Crucial Step toward Realism: Responses to Climate Change from an Evolving Metacommunity Perspective},
  author = {Urban, Mark C. and De Meester, Luc and Vellend, Mark and Stoks, Robby and Vanoverbeke, Joost},
  year = {2012},
  volume = {5},
  pages = {154--167},
  doi = {10.1111/j.1752-4571.2011.00208.x},
  abstract = {We need to understand joint ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change to predict future threats to biological diversity. The 'evolving metacommunity' framework emphasizes that interactions between ecological and evolutionary mechanisms at both local and regional scales will drive community dynamics during climate change. Theory suggests that ecological and evolutionary dynamics often interact to produce outcomes different from those predicted based on either mechanism alone. We highlight two of these dynamics: (i) species interactions prevent adaptation of nonresident species to new niches and (ii) resident species adapt to changing climates and thereby prevent colonization by nonresident species. The rate of environmental change, level of genetic variation, source-sink structure, and dispersal rates mediate between these potential outcomes. Future models should evaluate multiple species, species interactions other than competition, and multiple traits. Future experiments should manipulate factors such as genetic variation and dispersal to determine their joint effects on responses to climate change. Currently, we know much more about how climates will change across the globe than about how species will respond to these changes despite the profound effects these changes will have on global biological diversity. Integrating evolving metacommunity perspectives into climate change biology should produce more accurate predictions about future changes to species distributions and extinction threats.},
  journal = {Evolutionary Applications},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-11620871,biodiversity,climate-change,complexity,ecology,integrated-natural-resources-modelling-and-management,local-over-complication,non-linearity,transdisciplinary-research},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-11620871},
  number = {2}
}

@article{merianSizemediatedClimategrowthRelationships2011,
  title = {Size-Mediated Climate-Growth Relationships in Temperate Forests: A Multi-Species Analysis},
  author = {M{\'e}rian, Pierre and Lebourgeois, Fran{\c c}ois},
  year = {2011},
  month = apr,
  volume = {261},
  pages = {1382--1391},
  issn = {0378-1127},
  doi = {10.1016/j.foreco.2011.01.019},
  abstract = {In most dendrochronological studies, climate-growth relationships are established on dominant trees to minimize non-climatic signals. However, response to environmental factors may be affected by tree-size, which begs the question of the representativeness of dominant trees on the stand level. To highlight the variations in climate-growth relationships among sizes and species, under a wide range of ecological conditions (climate and soil properties), 61 pure even-aged stands were sampled across France. At each stand, two tree-ring chronologies were established from 10 big- to 10 small-diameter trees. Our objectives were, (1) to assess variations in climate sensitivity between the two size-diameter classes, and (2) to investigate the role of species and ecological conditions on these variations. The climate-growth relationships were evaluated from 122 tree-ring chronologies (1~220 trees) through extreme growth years and correlation function analyses. Sensitivity to climate of shade-intolerant and moderately shade-tolerant species (Picea abies (L.) Karst., Pinus sylvestris L. and Quercus petraea (Matt.) Liebl.) remained constant between the size-diameter classes for both temperature and hydric balance, while the shade-tolerant species Abies alba Mill. and Fagus sylvatica L. displayed significant differences, with larger trees being more sensitive to summer drought than smaller trees. This difference increased with increasing climatic xericity. Our results suggest that, for shade-tolerant species, (1) big trees could be more sensitive to climatic change especially under xeric climate, and (2) future tree ring studies should include trees stratified by size to produce unbiased estimation of sensitivity to climate. \^a\textordmasculine{} We investigated the tree-size effect on sensitivity to climate. \^a\textordmasculine{} Study was led on a multi-species network at broad scale. \^a\textordmasculine{} Only shade-tolerant species display changes in sensitivity among size-classes. \^a\textordmasculine{} Increasing local xericity induces increasing differences in sensitivity.},
  journal = {Forest Ecology and Management},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-8837665,abies-alba,climate-change,drought-tolerance,droughts,fagus-sylvatica,forest-resources,picea-abies,pinus-sylvestris,population-growth,quercus-petraea,shade-tolerance},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-8837665},
  number = {8}
}

@article{thuillerConsequencesClimateChange2011,
  title = {Consequences of Climate Change on the Tree of Life in {{Europe}}},
  author = {Thuiller, Wilfried and Lavergne, Sebastien and Roquet, Cristina and Boulangeat, Isabelle and Lafourcade, Bruno and Araujo, Miguel},
  year = {2011},
  month = feb,
  volume = {470},
  pages = {531--534},
  issn = {0028-0836},
  doi = {10.1038/nature09705},
  abstract = {Many species are projected to become vulnerable to twenty-first-century climate changes1, 2, with consequent effects on the tree of life. If losses were not randomly distributed across the tree of life, climate change could lead to a disproportionate loss of evolutionary history3, 4, 5. Here we estimate the consequences of climate change on the phylogenetic diversities of plant, bird and mammal assemblages across Europe. Using a consensus across ensembles of forecasts for 2020, 2050 and 2080 and high-resolution phylogenetic trees, we show that species vulnerability to climate change clusters weakly across phylogenies. Such phylogenetic signal in species vulnerabilities does not lead to higher loss of evolutionary history than expected with a model of random extinctions. This is because vulnerable species have neither fewer nor closer relatives than the remaining clades. Reductions in phylogenetic diversity will be greater in southern Europe, and gains are expected in regions of high latitude or altitude. However, losses will not be offset by gains and the tree of life faces a trend towards homogenization across the continent.},
  journal = {Nature},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-8834184,climate-change,communicating-uncertainty,consensus,ensemble,median,modelling,uncertainty},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-8834184},
  number = {7335}
}

@article{pidgeonRoleSocialDecision2011,
  title = {The Role of Social and Decision Sciences in Communicating Uncertain Climate Risks},
  author = {Pidgeon, Nick and Fischhoff, Baruch},
  year = {2011},
  month = mar,
  volume = {1},
  pages = {35--41},
  issn = {1758-678X},
  doi = {10.1038/nclimate1080},
  abstract = {A major challenge facing climate scientists is explaining to non-specialists the risks and uncertainties surrounding potential changes over the coming years, decades and centuries. Although there are many guidelines for climate communication, there is little empirical evidence of their efficacy, whether for dispassionately explaining the science or for persuading people to act in more sustainable ways. Moreover, climate communication faces new challenges as assessments of climate-related changes confront uncertainty more explicitly and adopt risk-based approaches to evaluating impacts. Given its critical importance, public understanding of climate science deserves the strongest possible communications science to convey the practical implications of large, complex, uncertain physical, biological and social processes. Here, we identify the communications science that is needed to meet this challenge and the ambitious, interdisciplinary initiative that its effective application to climate science requires.},
  journal = {Nature Climate Change},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-9089496,check-list,climate-change,communicating-uncertainty,science-ethics,science-policy-interface,scientific-communication},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-9089496},
  number = {1}
}

@article{dimitrakopoulosImpactDroughtWildland2011,
  title = {Impact of Drought on Wildland Fires in {{Greece}}: Implications of Climatic Change?},
  author = {Dimitrakopoulos, Alexandros P. and Vlahou, M. and Anagnostopoulou, Ch and Mitsopoulos, I. D.},
  year = {2011},
  month = feb,
  volume = {109},
  pages = {331--347},
  issn = {0165-0009},
  doi = {10.1007/s10584-011-0026-8},
  abstract = {An increasing trend and a statistically significant positive correlation between wildfire occurrence, area burned and drought (as expressed by the Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI) have been observed all over Greece, during the period 1961-1997. In the more humid and colder regions (Northern and Western Greece) the number of fires and area burned were positively correlated to both summer (SPI6\_October) and annual drought (SPI12\_September), whereas in the relatively more dry and hot regions (Southern and Central Greece) the number of fires and area burned were correlated only to summer drought. In 1978, Greece entered a period of prolonged drought, possibly as a result of the global climatic change. Data analysis of the period 1978-1997 revealed a statistically significant increase in the mean annual number of fires, the area burned and the summer and annual drought episodes in the relatively more humid and colder regions (Northern and Western) of Greece (which in the past were characterized by less fires and area burned) compared to the more dry and hot regions (Southern and Eastern Greece), which always presented high fire activity. Additionally, analyzing the two sub-periods (1961-1977, 1978-1997) separately, drought was significantly correlated only to fire occurrence during the years 1961-1977, whereas during 1978-1997 drought was significantly correlated mainly to area burned. It became obvious that drought episodes, although they are not solely responsible for fire occurrence and area burned, they exert an increasingly significant impact on wildfire activity in Greece.},
  journal = {Climatic Change},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-8944348,~to-add-doi-URL,climate-change,disturbances,droughts,feedback,forest-resources,natural-resources-interactions,precipitation,water-resources,wildfires},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-8944348},
  number = {3-4}
}

@article{evansModellingEcologicalSystems2011,
  title = {Modelling Ecological Systems in a Changing World},
  author = {Evans, Matthew R.},
  year = {2011},
  month = dec,
  volume = {367},
  pages = {181--190},
  issn = {1471-2970},
  doi = {10.1098/rstb.2011.0172},
  abstract = {The world is changing at an unprecedented rate. In such a situation, we need to understand the nature of the change and to make predictions about the way in which it might affect systems of interest; often we may also wish to understand what might be done to mitigate the predicted effects. In ecology, we usually make such predictions (or forecasts) by making use of mathematical models that describe the system and projecting them into the future, under changed conditions. Approaches emphasizing the desirability of simple models with analytical tractability and those that use assumed causal relationships derived statistically from data currently dominate ecological modelling. Although such models are excellent at describing the way in which a system has behaved, they are poor at predicting its future state, especially in novel conditions. In order to address questions about the impact of environmental change, and to understand what, if any, action might be taken to ameliorate it, ecologists need to develop the ability to project models into novel, future conditions. This will require the development of models based on understanding the processes that result in a system behaving the way it does, rather than relying on a description of the system, as a whole, remaining valid indefinitely.},
  journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-10110408,climate-change,ecology,emergent-property,environmental-modelling,extrapolation-error,forest-resources,modelling,system-of-systems},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-10110408},
  number = {1586}
}

@article{gea-izquierdoTreeringsReflectImpact2011,
  title = {Tree-Rings Reflect the Impact of Climate Change on {{Quercus}} Ilex {{L}}. along a Temperature Gradient in {{Spain}} over the Last 100 Years},
  author = {{Gea-Izquierdo}, G. and Cherubini, P. and Ca{\~n}ellas, I.},
  year = {2011},
  month = nov,
  volume = {262},
  pages = {1807--1816},
  issn = {0378-1127},
  doi = {10.1016/j.foreco.2011.07.025},
  abstract = {[Highlights]

[::] We study the oak response to climate along a temperature gradient using tree-rings. [::] Stand competition history was reconstructed and growth trends discussed. [::] Just warmer stands have reduced productivity responding to water stress increase. [::] The relationship between growth and precipitation was non-linear (sigmoidal). [::] The sigmoid response reflected biogeographically meaningful thresholds.

[Abstract] We analyzed tree rings over the past 100 years to understand the response of Quercus ilex L. to climate change at four different sites along a temperature gradient in a highly anthropogenically transformed ecosystem. To test the hypothesis of a climate change related decrease in productivity at warmer sites, we discuss the effect of historical management on the growth of forest stands and the spatio-temporal variability of growth in response to climate, analyzing departures from linearity in that relationship. We reconstructed stand history and investigated past growth trends using tree-rings. Then we used a dendroecological approach to study the regional, local and age-dependent response to climate, analyzing the relationship between precipitation and tree growth using non-linear mixed models. Tree rings reflected the origin of the studied landscape, mainly a simplification of an original closed forest and progressive canopy opening for agrosilvopastoral purposes after the mid 1800s. As expected, trees were principally responding to water availability, and regional growth (as expressed by the first principal component from the matrix of chronologies) was highly responsive to hydrological year precipitation (r = 0.7). In this water limited ecosystem, the response of growth to precipitation was asymptotic and independent of age, but variable in time. Maximum growth was variable at the different sites and the non-linear function of growth saturated (i.e. reached an asymptote) at temperature dependent site specific precipitation levels within the range considered in the region to lead a shift towards deciduous species dominated woodlands (around 600 mm, variable with mean temperature). Only trees at warmer sites showed symptoms of growth decline, most likely explained by water stress increase in the last decades affecting the highly transformed open (i.e. low competition) tree structure. Stands at colder locations did not show any negative growth trend and may benefit from the current increase in winter temperatures. Coinciding with the decrease in productivity, trees at warmer sites responded more to moisture availability, exhibited a slower response to precipitation and reached maximum growth at higher precipitation levels than trees at colder sites. This suggests that warmer stands are threatened by climate change. The non-linear response of growth to precipitation described is meaningful for different ecological applications and provides new insights in the way trees respond to climate.},
  journal = {Forest Ecology and Management},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13631645,~to-add-doi-URL,bioclimatic-predictors,climate-change,dendroecology,drought-tolerance,droughts,ecology,field-measurements,forest-resources,global-warming,non-linearity,nonlinear-response-to-bioclimatic-predictors,precipitation,quercus-ilex,temperature,time-series},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13631645},
  number = {9}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{citeulike:8824837,
    abstract = {Quantitative estimates of the economic damages of climate change usually are based on aggregate relationships linking average temperature change to loss in gross domestic product ({GDP}). However, there is a clear need for further detail in the regional and sectoral dimensions of impact assessments to design and prioritize adaptation strategies. New developments in regional climate modeling and physical-impact modeling in Europe allow a better exploration of those dimensions. This article quantifies the potential consequences of climate change in Europe in four market impact categories (agriculture, river floods, coastal areas, and tourism) and one nonmarket impact (human health). The methodology integrates a set of coherent, high-resolution climate change projections and physical models into an economic modeling framework. We find that if the climate of the 2080s were to occur today, the annual loss in household welfare in the European Union ({EU}) resulting from the four market impacts would range between 0.2–1\%. If the welfare loss is assumed to be constant over time, climate change may halve the {EU}'s annual welfare growth. Scenarios with warmer temperatures and a higher rise in sea level result in more severe economic damage. However, the results show that there are large variations across European regions. Southern Europe, the British Isles, and Central Europe North appear most sensitive to climate change. Northern Europe, on the other hand, is the only region with net economic benefits, driven mainly by the positive effects on agriculture. Coastal systems, agriculture, and river flooding are the most important of the four market impacts assessed.},
    author = {Ciscar, Juan-Carlos and Iglesias, Ana and Feyen, Luc and Szab\'{o}, L\'{a}szl\'{o} and Van Regemorter, Denise and Amelung, Bas and Nicholls, Robert and Watkiss, Paul and Christensen, Ole B. and Dankers, Rutger and Garrote, Luis and Goodess, Clare M. and Hunt, Alistair and Moreno, Alvaro and Richards, Julie and Soria, Antonio},
    citeulike-article-id = {8824837},
    citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1011612108},
    citeulike-linkout-1 = {http://scholar.google.com/scholar?cluster=2315347856674073770},
    citeulike-linkout-2 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1011612108},
    citeulike-linkout-3 = {http://www.pnas.org/content/108/7/2678.abstract},
    citeulike-linkout-4 = {http://www.pnas.org/content/108/7/2678.full.pdf},
    citeulike-linkout-5 = {http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/abstract/108/7/2678},
    citeulike-linkout-6 = {http://view.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21282624},
    citeulike-linkout-7 = {http://www.hubmed.org/display.cgi?uids=21282624},
    day = {15},
    doi = {10.1073/pnas.1011612108},
    issn = {1091-6490},
    journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
    keywords = {climate-change, disasters, economic-impacts, europe, nonmarket-impacts},
    month = feb,
    number = {7},
    pages = {2678--2683},
    pmid = {21282624},
    posted-at = {2014-06-08 23:22:25},
    priority = {2},
    publisher = {National Academy of Sciences},
    title = {Physical and economic consequences of climate change in Europe},
    url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1011612108},
    volume = {108},
    year = {2011}
}

@article{vanvuurenRepresentativeConcentrationPathways2011,
  title = {The Representative Concentration Pathways: An Overview},
  author = {{van Vuuren}, Detlef P. and Edmonds, Jae and Kainuma, Mikiko and Riahi, Keywan and Thomson, Allison and Hibbard, Kathy and Hurtt, George C. and Kram, Tom and Krey, Volker and Lamarque, Jean-Francois and Masui, Toshihiko and Meinshausen, Malte and Nakicenovic, Nebojsa and Smith, Steven J. and Rose, Steven K.},
  year = {2011},
  month = nov,
  volume = {109},
  pages = {5--31},
  issn = {0165-0009},
  doi = {10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z},
  abstract = {This paper summarizes the development process and main characteristics of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), a set of four new pathways developed for the climate modeling community as a basis for long-term and near-term modeling experiments. The four RCPs together span the range of year 2100 radiative forcing values found in the open literature, i.e. from 2.6 to 8.5 W/m 2 . The RCPs are the product of an innovative collaboration between integrated assessment modelers, climate modelers, terrestrial ecosystem modelers and emission inventory experts. The resulting product forms a comprehensive data set with high spatial and sectoral resolutions for the period extending to 2100. Land use and emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases are reported mostly at a 0.5 \texttimes{} 0.5 degree spatial resolution, with air pollutants also provided per sector (for well-mixed gases, a coarser resolution is used). The underlying integrated assessment model outputs for land use, atmospheric emissions and concentration data were harmonized across models and scenarios to ensure consistency with historical observations while preserving individual scenario trends. For most variables, the RCPs cover a wide range of the existing literature. The RCPs are supplemented with extensions (Extended Concentration Pathways, ECPs), which allow climate modeling experiments through the year 2300. The RCPs are an important development in climate research and provide a potential foundation for further research and assessment, including emissions mitigation and impact analysis.},
  journal = {Climatic Change},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-9663215,~to-add-doi-URL,climate-change,climate-projections,high-impact-publication,ipcc,ipcc-scenarios,representative-concentration-pathways,scenario-analysis},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-9663215},
  number = {1-2}
}

@article{dosioBiasCorrectionENSEMBLES2011,
  title = {Bias Correction of the {{ENSEMBLES}} High-Resolution Climate Change Projections for Use by Impact Models: Evaluation on the Present Climate},
  author = {Dosio, A. and Paruolo, P.},
  year = {2011},
  month = aug,
  volume = {116},
  issn = {0148-0227},
  doi = {10.1029/2011jd015934},
  abstract = {A statistical bias correction technique is applied to a set of high-resolution climate change simulations for Europe from 11 state-of-the-art regional climate models (RCMs) from the project ENSEMBLES. Modeled and observed daily values of mean, minimum and maximum temperature and total precipitation are used to construct transfer functions for the period 1961-1990, which are then applied to the decade 1991-2000, where the results are evaluated. By using a large ensembles of model runs and a long construction period, we take into account both intermodel variability and longer (e.g., decadal) natural climate variability. Results show that the technique performs successfully for all variables over large part of the European continent, for all seasons. In particular, the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of both temperature and precipitation are greatly improved, especially in the tails, i.e., increasing the capability of reproducing extreme events. When the statistics of bias-corrected results are ensemble averaged, the result is very close to the observed ones. The bias correction technique is also able to improve statistics that depend strongly on the temporal sequence of the original field, such as the number of consecutive dry days and the total amount of precipitation in consecutive heavy precipitation episodes, which are quantities that may have a large influence on, e.g., hydrological or crop impact models. Bias-corrected projections of RCMs are hence found to be potentially useful for the assessment of impacts of climate change over Europe.},
  journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14151660,~to-add-doi-URL,bias-correction,climate-change,climate-projections,data-transformation-modelling,e-obs,europe,statistics},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-14151660},
  number = {D16}
}

@article{bobiecOakQuercusRobur2011,
  title = {Oak ({{Quercus}} Robur {{L}}.) Regeneration as a Response to Natural Dynamics of Stands in {{European}} Hemiboreal Zone},
  author = {Bobiec, Andrzej and Jaszcz, Ewelina and Wojtunik, Karolina},
  year = {2011},
  month = feb,
  volume = {130},
  pages = {785--797},
  issn = {1612-4669},
  doi = {10.1007/s10342-010-0471-3},
  abstract = {The oak (Quercus robur L.) regeneration intensity was assessed in the core area of the Bia\l owie\.za National Park (BNP) in Poland with respect to the selected ecological factors. The emphasis was placed on the response of oak regeneration to disturbances, including the large-scale dieback of spruce stands. Defining their effect could help predicting the role of oak in naturally developing lowland forest ecosystems in the European hemiboreal zone. The results of the study challenge the opinion that the 'lime-oak-hornbeam forest' is a 'climax' community, confirming a very poor regeneration represented by only two saplings taller than 0.5~m per hectare. By contrast, in spruce-dominated communities, from 49 to 848 taller saplings per hectare were found. The occurrence of saplings was associated with discontinuous canopy of late seral stage of stands, as well as with large gaps. Most of the best quality grown-up oak saplings developed in the immediate neighbourhood of spruce logs. The results of the research indicate that 'lime-oak-hornbeam forest' (Tilio-Carpinetum) should be rather perceived as a transient community, evolved from relict, culturally modified, oak woodlands. Because spruce had become a dominating species only after abandoning in mid-1800s the historical regime of anthropogenic disturbances (involving frequent forest fires), the observed phenomena related to the disintegration of spruce stands had probably no precedent over the last 500~years. To confirm whether the massive decline of spruce stands will finally result in the successful establishment of the new canopy oak generation, both in Bia\l owie\.za and other forests of hemiboreal zone, further research is needed.},
  journal = {European Journal of Forest Research},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-8850334,air-pollution,anthropogenic-changes,climate-change,disturbances,droughts,ecosystem-change,europe,forest-pests,forest-resources,forest-succession,picea-abies,poland,precipitation,quercus-robur,spruce-decline,system-catastrophe},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-8850334},
  number = {5}
}

@article{riahiRCPScenarioComparatively2011,
  title = {{{RCP}} 8.5 - {{A}} Scenario of Comparatively High Greenhouse Gas Emissions},
  author = {Riahi, Keywan and Rao, Shilpa and Krey, Volker and Cho, Cheolhung and Chirkov, Vadim and Fischer, Guenther and Kindermann, Georg and Nakicenovic, Nebojsa and Rafaj, Peter},
  year = {2011},
  month = nov,
  volume = {109},
  pages = {33--57},
  issn = {0165-0009},
  doi = {10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y},
  abstract = {This paper summarizes the main characteristics of the RCP8.5 scenario. The RCP8.5 combines assumptions about high population and relatively slow income growth with modest rates of technological change and energy intensity improvements, leading in the long term to high energy demand and GHG emissions in absence of climate change policies. Compared to the total set of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP8.5 thus corresponds to the pathway with the highest greenhouse gas emissions. Using the IIASA Integrated Assessment Framework and the MESSAGE model for the development of the RCP8.5, we focus in this paper on two important extensions compared to earlier scenarios: 1) the development of spatially explicit air pollution projections, and 2) enhancements in the land-use and land-cover change projections. In addition, we explore scenario variants that use RCP8.5 as a baseline, and assume different degrees of greenhouse gas mitigation policies to reduce radiative forcing. Based on our modeling framework, we find it technically possible to limit forcing from RCP8.5 to lower levels comparable to the other RCPs (2.6 to 6 W/m 2 ). Our scenario analysis further indicates that climate policy-induced changes of global energy supply and demand may lead to significant co-benefits for other policy priorities, such as local air pollution.},
  journal = {Climatic Change},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-9720540,~to-add-doi-URL,climate-change,climate-projections,ghg,ipcc-scenarios,rcp85},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-9720540},
  number = {1-2}
}

@article{berkhoutReconstructingBoundariesReason2010,
  title = {Reconstructing Boundaries and Reason in the Climate Debate},
  author = {Berkhout, Frans},
  year = {2010},
  month = oct,
  volume = {20},
  pages = {565--569},
  issn = {0959-3780},
  doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.07.006},
  abstract = {In this article I argue that the climate controversies of 2009 and 2010 should be seen as a contest about the boundaries of science; a contest which sociologists argue has long been important in establishing claims about the nature and authority of science. This boundary typically comes under pressure where science is asked to contribute to public policy. Three changes appear to have brought pressure on this boundary, and therefore on the authority of science, in the domain climate change: public scrutiny of practices in science, such as peer review; the intensification of climate politics, especially around the 2009 Copenhagen climate summit; and the opportunities provided by new media for dissident opinions to play a role in the international public discourse about climate change. These changes explain the intensity of the recent climate controversies. They seem to confront climate science and science generally with uncomfortable questions about its own procedures, about the status of scientific knowledge claims in the public realm and about the role of expertise. At the end of the article I speculate about how to reconstruct a more open and interactive boundary between science and public discourse as a basis for more reasoned debate about climate change. The recent climate controversies can be viewed as a contest about the nature and authority of science. Three changes appear to have intensified this contest in the climate change. Domain: public scrutiny of practices in science; the intensification of climate politics; and opportunities the new media gives dissident opinions to play a role in public discourses about climate change. Ways of reconstructing a more open and interactive boundary between science and public discourse are discussed.},
  journal = {Global Environmental Change},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-7762790,citizen-science,climate-change,free-scientific-knowledge,hidden-knowledge,knowledge-freedom,open-science,post-normal-science,science-ethics,science-policy-interface,scientific-communication},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-7762790},
  number = {4}
}

@article{goberVulnerabilityAssessmentClimateinduced2010,
  title = {Vulnerability Assessment of Climate-Induced Water Shortage in {{Phoenix}}},
  author = {Gober, Patricia and Kirkwood, Craig W.},
  year = {2010},
  month = dec,
  volume = {107},
  pages = {21295--21299},
  issn = {1091-6490},
  doi = {10.1073/pnas.0911113107},
  abstract = {Global warming has profound consequences for the climate of the American Southwest and its overallocated water supplies. This paper uses simulation modeling and the principles of decision making under uncertainty to translate climate information into tools for vulnerability assessment and urban climate adaptation. A dynamic simulation model, WaterSim, is used to explore future water-shortage conditions in Phoenix. Results indicate that policy action will be needed to attain water sustainability in 2030, even without reductions in river flows caused by climate change. Challenging but feasible changes in lifestyle and slower rates of population growth would allow the region to avoid shortage conditions and achieve groundwater sustainability under all but the most dire climate scenarios. Changes in lifestyle involve more native desert landscaping and fewer pools in addition to slower growth and higher urban densities. There is not a single most likely or optimal future for Phoenix. Urban climate adaptation involves using science-based models to anticipate water shortage and manage climate risk.},
  journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-8424286,assessment,climate-change,communicating-uncertainty,deep-uncertainty,global-warming,uncertainty,united-states,water-scarcity},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-8424286},
  number = {50}
}

@article{thanukosScience101Building2010,
  title = {Science 101: Building the Foundations for Real Understanding},
  author = {Thanukos, A. and Scotchmoor, J. G. and Caldwell, R. and Lindberg, D. R.},
  year = {2010},
  month = dec,
  volume = {330},
  pages = {1764--1765},
  issn = {0036-8075},
  doi = {10.1126/science.1186994},
  abstract = {It's not just about evolution anymore. Growing anti-science sentiment in the United States now infuses public discourse on conservation, vaccination, distribution of research funds, and climate change (1). Low rates of scientific literacy (2) exacerbate the problem. Although the public recognizes its indebtedness to the products of scientific knowledge, few understand much about the nature of that knowledge or the processes that generated it (3). Without a basic understanding of how science works, the public is vulnerable to antiscience propaganda, which engenders distrust of science when it comes to social issues, consumer choices, and policy decisions.},
  journal = {Science},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-8495103,~to-add-doi-URL,climate-change,cognitive-biases,conservation,education,evolution,research-funding,science-society-interface,scientific-communication,united-states,vaccination},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-8495103},
  number = {6012}
}

@article{kummuPhysicalWaterScarcity2010,
  title = {Is Physical Water Scarcity a New Phenomenon? {{Global}} Assessment of Water Shortage over the Last Two Millennia},
  author = {Kummu, Matti and Ward, Philip J. and {de Moel}, Hans and Varis, Olli},
  year = {2010},
  month = aug,
  volume = {5},
  pages = {034006+},
  issn = {1748-9326},
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/5/3/034006},
  abstract = {In this letter we analyse the temporal development of physical population-driven water scarcity, i.e. water shortage, over the period 0 AD to 2005 AD. This was done using population data derived from the HYDE dataset, and water resource availability based on the WaterGAP model results for the period 1961-90. Changes in historical water resources availability were simulated with the STREAM model, forced by climate output data of the ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE climate model. The water crowding index, i.e. Falkenmark water stress indicator, was used to identify water shortage in 284 sub-basins. Although our results show a few areas with moderate water shortage (1000-1700 m3/capita/yr) around the year 1800, water shortage began in earnest at around 1900, when 2\,\% of the world population was under chronic water shortage ( {$<$} 1000 m3/capita/yr). By 1960, this percentage had risen to 9\,\%. From then on, the number of people under water shortage increased rapidly to the year 2005, by which time 35\,\% of the world population lived in areas with chronic water shortage. In this study, the effects of changes in population on water shortage are roughly four times more important than changes in water availability as a result of long-term climatic change. Global trends in adaptation measures to cope with reduced water resources per capita, such as irrigated area, reservoir storage, groundwater abstraction, and global trade of agricultural products, closely follow the recent increase in global water shortage.},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-11283582,climate-change,global-change,integrated-water-resources-management,polulation,population-growth,water-resources,water-scarcity},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-11283582},
  number = {3}
}

@article{hemeryGrowingScatteredBroadleaved2010,
  title = {Growing Scattered Broadleaved Tree Species in {{Europe}} in a Changing Climate: A Review of Risks and Opportunities},
  author = {Hemery, G. E. and Clark, J. R. and Aldinger, E. and Claessens, H. and Malvolti, M. E. and O'connor, E. and Raftoyannis, Y. and Savill, P. S. and Brus, R.},
  year = {2010},
  volume = {83},
  pages = {65--81},
  issn = {1464-3626},
  doi = {10.1093/forestry/cpp034},
  abstract = {Scattered broadleaved tree species such as ashes (Fraxinus excelsior L. and Fraxinus angustifolia Vahl.), black alder (Alnus glutinosa (L.) Gaertn.), birches (Betula pendula Roth. and Betula pubescens Ehrh.), elms (Ulmus glabra Huds., Ulmus laevis Pall. and Ulmus minor Mill.), limes (Tilia cordata Mill. and Tilia platyphyllos Scop.), maples (Acer campestre L., Acer platanoides L. and Acer pseudoplatanus L.), wild service tree (Sorbus domestica L. and Sorbus torminalis L. Crantz), walnuts (Juglans regia L., Juglans nigra L. and hybrids) and wild cherry (Prunus avium L.) are important components of European forests. Many species have high economic, environmental and social values. Their scattered distributions, exacerbated in many cases by human activity, may make them more vulnerable to climate change. They are likely to have less ability to reproduce or adapt to shifting climate space than more widespread species. The general impacts of climate change on these scattered species are reviewed. Some specific risks and opportunities are highlighted for each species, although there is considerable uncertainty and therefore, difficulty in quantifying many specific risks and/or impacts on scattered broadleaved tree species.

[Excerpt: Conclusions]

This review has revealed considerable uncertainty and therefore difficulty in quantifying many specific risks and/or impacts on scattered broadleaved tree species. However, where specific evidence or modelling does exist, as reviewed in the species sections above, these are summarized in Table 3. Caution should be exercised in attributing too much weight to the summary. It is extremely difficult to say whether an impact is high or low and to quantify these in a realistic sense. For any given species and factor, there is a high degree of uncertainty as, in most cases, no research has been undertaken to answer these questions. However, this review may provide a foundation for discussion among scientists and policy makers, and in so doing, it may provide an indication of future research priorities and policy directions. 

[\textbackslash n] The recent completion of an European Union-funded COST Action (E42) that considered the growing of valuable (scattered) broadleaved tree species, involving some 100 scientists and practitioners from 25 European countries (Hemery et al., 2008), concluded that there is a lack of knowledge about provenances and genetics of scattered broadleaves, especially concerning their reaction to climate change. Hemery et al. (2008) recommended that the knowledge base of existing seed orchards and clonal reproductive material should be communicated more widely. Scattered broadleaved trees often are important characteristics in the landscape and valuable elements of biological diversity. When these are well managed, they may provide additional benefits to society and the environment. Scattered broadleaved tree species may enhance ecological, economic and social values of our forests and thereby contribute to the sustainability of forestry.},
  journal = {Forestry},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13406120,~to-add-doi-URL,acer-spp,alnus-glutinosa,betula-pendula,betula-pubescens,broadleaved,climate-change,forest-resources,fraxinus-spp,juglans-spp,prunus-avium,sorbus-spp,species-distribution,tilia-spp,ulmus-spp},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13406120},
  number = {1}
}

Paper  abstract   bibtex   

@article{turner_disturbance_2010,
	title = {Disturbance and landscape dynamics in a changing world},
	volume = {91},
	issn = {0012-9658},
	url = {://000282654700004},
	abstract = {Disturbance regimes are changing rapidly, and the consequences of such changes for ecosystems and linked social-ecological systems will be profound. This paper synthesizes current understanding of disturbance with an emphasis on fundamental contributions to contemporary landscape and ecosystem ecology, then identifies future research priorities. Studies of disturbance led to insights about heterogeneity, scale, and thresholds in space and time and catalyzed new paradigms in ecology. Because they create vegetation patterns, disturbances also establish spatial patterns of many ecosystem processes on the landscape. Drivers of global change will produce new spatial patterns, altered disturbance regimes, novel trajectories of change, and surprises. Future disturbances will continue to provide valuable opportunities for studying pattern-process interactions. Changing disturbance regimes will produce acute changes in ecosystems and ecosystem services over the short (years to decades) and long term (centuries and beyond). Future research should address questions related to (1) disturbances as catalysts of rapid ecological change, (2) interactions among disturbances, (3) relationships between disturbance and society, especially the intersection of land use and disturbance, and (4) feedbacks from disturbance to other global drivers. Ecologists should make a renewed and concerted effort to understand and anticipate the causes and consequences of changing disturbance regimes.},
	language = {English},
	number = {10},
	journal = {Ecology},
	author = {Turner, M. G.},
	month = oct,
	year = {2010},
	keywords = {canadian boreal forest, climate-change, cross-scale interactions, disturbance regime, ecosystem ecology, fire, global change, landscape ecology, macarthur address, natural disturbance, net primary production, pinus contorta, postfire lodgepole pine, scale, spatial heterogeneity, stand-replacing fire, sub-alpine forests, succession, wildland-urban interface, yellowstone national park, yellowstone-national-park},
	pages = {2833--2849},
}

@article{klausmeyerClimateChangeHabitat2009,
  title = {Climate Change, Habitat Loss, Protected Areas and the Climate Adaptation Potential of Species in {{Mediterranean}} Ecosystems Worldwide},
  author = {Klausmeyer, Kirk R. and Shaw, M. R.},
  year = {2009},
  month = jul,
  volume = {4},
  pages = {e6392+},
  issn = {1932-6203},
  doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0006392},
  abstract = {Mediterranean climate is found on five continents and supports five global biodiversity hotspots. Based on combined downscaled results from 23 atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for three emissions scenarios, we determined the projected spatial shifts in the mediterranean climate extent (MCE) over the next century. Although most AOGCMs project a moderate expansion in the global MCE, regional impacts are large and uneven. The median AOGCM simulation output for the three emissions scenarios project the MCE at the end of the 21st century in Chile will range from 129-153\,\% of its current size, while in Australia, it will contract to only 77-49\,\% of its current size losing an area equivalent to over twice the size of Portugal. Only 4\,\% of the land area within the current MCE worldwide is in protected status (compared to a global average of 12\,\% for all biome types), and, depending on the emissions scenario, only 50-60\,\% of these protected areas are likely to be in the future MCE. To exacerbate the climate impact, nearly one third (29-31\,\%) of the land where the MCE is projected to remain stable has already been converted to human use, limiting the size of the potential climate refuges and diminishing the adaptation potential of native biota. High conversion and low protection in projected stable areas make Australia the highest priority region for investment in climate-adaptation strategies to reduce the threat of climate change to the rich biodiversity of the Mediterranean biome.},
  journal = {PLOS ONE},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14257874,~to-add-doi-URL,adaptation,australia,biodiversity,chile,climate-change,conservation,ecosystem,habitat-conservation,mediterranean-region,protected-areas},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-14257874},
  number = {7}
}

@article{amatulliProjectingFutureBurnt2009,
  title = {Projecting Future Burnt Area in the {{EU}}-{{Mediterranean}} Countries under {{IPCC SRES A2}}/{{B2}} Climate Change Scenarios},
  author = {Amatulli, Giuseppe and Camia, Andrea and {San-Miguel-Ayanz}, Jes{\'u}s},
  editor = {Chuvieco, E. and Lasaponara, R.},
  year = {2009},
  pages = {33--38},
  abstract = {The goal of this work is to use the results of statistical modelling of historical (1985-2004) monthly burnt areas in European Mediterranean countries, as a function of monthly weather data and derived fire danger indexes, and to analyse potential trends under present and future climate conditions. Meteorological variables were extracted from the ECMWF, and the FWI system components were computed from 1961 until 2004. Monthly averages of the indexes were used as explanatory variables in a stepwise multiple linear regression analysis, to estimate the monthly burnt areas in each of the five most affected Mediterranean countries of Europe. Significant regression equations and satisfactory coefficient of determinations were found, although with remarkable differences among countries. Two IPCC SRES climate change scenarios (A2/B2) were simulated using the the regional climate model HIRHAM. The multiple regression models were than applied to the A2/B2 scenarios results to predict the potential burnt areas in each country. The models pointed out tangible changes in the potential burnt area extent for the future scenarios compared to the actual conditions.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-11896019,array-programming,awk,climate-change,computational-science,forest-fires,forest-resources,gnu-r,mediterranean-region,reproducible-research},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-11896019},
  number = {JRC55149}
}

@book{birotLivingWildfiresWhat2009,
  title = {Living with Wildfires: What Science Can Tell Us - {{A}} Contribution to the Science-Policy Dialogue},
  author = {Birot, Yves and Borgniet, Laurent and Camia, Andrea and Dupuy, Jean-Luc and Fernandes, Paulo and Goldammer, Johann G. and {Gonzalez-Olabarria}, Jos{\'e} R. and Jappiot, Mireille and {Lampin-Maillet}, Corinne and Mavsar, Robert and {Montiel-Molina}, Cristina and Moreira, Francisco and Moreno, Jos{\'e} M. and Rego, Francisco and Rigolot, Eric and {San-Miguel-Ayanz}, Jesus and Vallejo, Ramon and Velez, Ricardo},
  editor = {Birot, Yves},
  year = {2009},
  volume = {15},
  publisher = {{European Forest Institute}},
  address = {{Joensuu, Finland}},
  abstract = {[Excerpt: Introduction] Contrary to other natural hazards such as earthquakes or windstorms, wildfires are certainly among the most predictable ones. Therefore, it is a phenomenon which, in principle, should leave modern societies some degrees of freedom and margins of manoeuvre for implementing efficient counteracting strategies. However, this opportunity has not been properly used. Over the last decades, wildfires have proven to be a subject of growing concern for the Mediterranean Region. Woodlands, rangelands, maquis and garrigues in rural areas or at the interface with urban areas still continue to burn with significant environmental, social and economic impacts, in particular in case of increased frequencies of fires. Although the European statistics show that in average policies and measures related to fire prevention and suppression have been efficient, extreme climatic conditions (in 2003 in western Europe, and in 2007 in eastern Europe) result in catastrophic fires, such as those undergone by Portugal and Greece. The impacts of such disasters are tremendous, also at the political level. Although the occurrence of severe wildfires has been affecting mainly the northern rim of the Mediterranean Basin, some significant changes in climate and land use are already taking place and will most likely result in an expansion of fire threatened areas. For example, Syria, Lebanon and Algeria have recently been exposed to catastrophic wildfires. In a near future, new areas in the north will face a shift to Mediterranean-like ecological conditions, which raises the question of how to anticipate these evolutions.

[] As any risk, wildfires cannot and should not be eradicated, and anyhow, managing fire risk through prevention and suppression has a cost. Therefore, in the context of finite financial resources and increased areas subject to fire, the appropriate response cannot be just to continue business as usual, as it will require a dramatic increase in the means and equipments allocated to fire management. The issue at stake is rather to set up integrated strategies and policies that provide '' reasonable'' trade-offs between environmental, social and economic elements, and allow us to live with wildfire risk. This new approach definitely calls for a profound rethink of these strategies and policies at national and European level, by tackling the problem in all dimensions, including a clear identification of civil protection and forest protection objectives, as they have been in the past quite often mixed up. There is a need for moving from short term driven policy of fire control, mainly based on huge technological investments, to a longer term policy of removing the structural causes of wildfires.

[] Science's traditional mission has been - and still is - to advance knowledge as a support to innovation. Today, the mission is also to provide expertise in the policy making processes. The science community feels that it can and should contribute to feed the debate on wildfire by providing research results and ideas as background material for future options in strategies and policies. Wildfire related research has been very active in Europe over the last two decades, in particular thanks to a number of EU funded projects (Framework Programmes for RTD), so that a structured research community and new expertise and competence have emerged. Time has come to make this knowledge more digestible and available to policy and decision makers, and beyond to the whole society. This is the ambition of the current paper.

[] The document is not a state of the art report covering, in an exhaustive manner, all issues related to wildfires. It focuses rather on a limited number of selected key topics on which scientists have some messages to deliver, and which should be considered in future policy making processes. The overall objective of this discussion paper is to provide understanding for managing.

[] This discussion paper is divided in four sections. The first one presents some statistical figures on wildfire and underlines the trends. The second section deals with two basic questions which should form the background of any rational strategy: why and how do woodlands burn? what is the resulting impact? Practices and strategies for acting on fire risk, including the economic and policy dimensions, are presented in the third section. In the last part, the emphasis is put on the challenges linked to increased and new wildfire risks related to climate change, and ways to cope with them.

[] [...]},
  isbn = {978-952-5453-30-0},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14256110,climate-change,economic-impacts,natural-hazards,science-policy-interface,wildfires},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-14256110},
  series = {Discussion {{Paper}}}
}

@techreport{vanderlindenENSEMBLESClimateChange2009,
  title = {{{ENSEMBLES}}: {{Climate Change}} and Its {{Impacts}} - {{Summary}} of Research and Results from the {{ENSEMBLES}} Project},
  author = {{van der Linden}, P. and Mitchell, J. F. B.},
  year = {2009},
  pages = {160},
  address = {{Exeter, United Kingdom}},
  institution = {{Met Office Hadley Centre}},
  abstract = {The climate projections generated in ENSEMBLES describe the world and Europe experiencing tangible, measurable climate change. As the century progresses the projected climate moves increasingly farther away from its current state, so that by 2100 the climate of Europe will be very different from today. Even under a mitigation scenario, the climate of Europe during the next few decades is still calculated to depart significantly from that of the present.

[] ENSEMBLES results show how the impacts resulting from these climate changes, including changes in climate mean, variability and extremes, affect all the systems and sectors studied. Adverse impacts increase in magnitude through time often exceeding critical system thresholds. Examples include impacts on health, water resources, agriculture, energy supply and demand, and fire and pest risks to forests.

[] Many of these new results reinforce the conclusions of earlier studies of climate change projections and impacts. What is new about the ENSEMBLES results is that they describe in far greater detail how the climate is expected to change under standard scenarios of future emissions. They also include, for the first time, multi-model climate projections for a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario leading to emissions and temperature stabilisation in line with European policy aims. The results have been used as a basis for a set of new tools and datasets for informing potential users about present and future climate, and have been linked to new techniques for assessing the impacts of climate change in Europe in terms of risk.

[] This 'added value' in the ENSEMBLES results comes from using improved models, developing new and better techniques to analyse and disseminate projections of climate change and their uncertainties, and demonstrating how this information can be applied in policy-relevant impact assessments. The improvements for example, add skill to seasonal forecasting while multi-decadal models, for the first time, have produced probabilistic climate change projections for Europe.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14257308,climate-change,climate-projections,europe},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-14257308}
}

@article{lavalleClimateChangeEurope2009,
  title = {Climate Change in {{Europe}} - 3 {{Impact}} on Agriculture and Forestry: A Review},
  author = {Lavalle, Carlo and Micale, Fabio and Houston Durrant, Tracy and Camia, Andrea and Hiederer, Roland and Lazar, Catalin and Conte, Costanza and Amatulli, Giuseppe and Genovese, Giampiero},
  year = {2009},
  volume = {29},
  pages = {433--446},
  issn = {1773-0155},
  doi = {10.1051/agro/2008068},
  abstract = {This article reviews major impacts of climate change on agriculture and forestry.},
  journal = {Agronomy for Sustainable Development},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12643471,agricultural-resources,climate-change,europe,forest-resources,multiauthor,review},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-12643471},
  number = {3}
}

@article{tinnerHoloceneEnvironmentalClimatic2009,
  title = {Holocene Environmental and Climatic Changes at {{Gorgo Basso}}, a Coastal Lake in Southern {{Sicily}}, {{Italy}}},
  author = {Tinner, Willy and {van Leeuwen}, Jacqueline F. N. and Colombaroli, Daniele and Vescovi, Elisa and {van der Knaap}, W. O. and Henne, Paul D. and Pasta, Salvatore and D'Angelo, Stefania and La Mantia, Tommaso},
  year = {2009},
  month = jul,
  volume = {28},
  pages = {1498--1510},
  issn = {0277-3791},
  doi = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.02.001},
  abstract = {We used a new sedimentary record to reconstruct the Holocene vegetation and fire history of Gorgo Basso, a coastal lake in south-western Sicily (Italy). Pollen and charcoal data suggest a fire-prone open grassland near the site until ca 10,000~cal yr BP (8050~cal BC), when Pistacia shrubland expanded and fire activity declined, probably in response to increased moisture availability. Evergreen Olea europaea woods expanded ca 8400 to decline abruptly at 8200~cal yr BP, when climatic conditions became drier at other sites in the Mediterranean region. Around 7000~cal yr BP evergreen broadleaved forests (Quercus ilex, Quercus suber and O. europaea) expanded at the cost of open communities. The expansion of evergreen broadleaved forests was associated with a decline of fire and of local Neolithic (Ficus carica-Cerealia based) agriculture that had initiated ca 500 years earlier. Vegetational, fire and land-use changes ca 7000~cal yr BP were probably caused by increased precipitation that resulted from (insolation-forced) weakening of the monsoon and Hadley circulation ca 8000-6000~cal yr BP. Low fire activity and dense coastal evergreen forests persisted until renewed human activity (probably Greek, respectively Roman colonists) disrupted the forest ca 2700~cal yr BP (750 BC) and 2100~cal yr BP (150 BC) to gain open land for agriculture. The intense use of fire for this purpose induced the expansion of open maquis, garrigue, and grassland-prairie environments (with an increasing abundance of the native palm Chamaerops humilis). Prehistoric land-use phases after the Bronze Age seem synchronous with those at other sites in southern and central Europe, possibly as a result of climatic forcing. Considering the response of vegetation to Holocene climatic variability as well as human impact we conclude that under (semi-)natural conditions evergreen broadleaved Q. ilex-O. europaea (s.l.) forests would still dominate near Gorgo Basso. However, forecasted climate change and aridification may lead to a situation similar to that before 7000~cal yr BP and thus trigger a rapid collapse of the few relict evergreen broadleaved woodlands in coastal Sicily and elsewhere in the southern Mediterranean region.},
  journal = {Quaternary Science Reviews},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-4711819,charcoal,climate-change,holocene,pollen,sicily},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-4711819},
  number = {15-16}
}

@article{broomeEthicsClimateChange2008,
  title = {The {{Ethics}} of {{Climate Change}}},
  author = {Broome, John},
  year = {2008},
  month = jun,
  volume = {298},
  pages = {96--102},
  issn = {0036-8733},
  doi = {10.1038/scientificamerican0608-96},
  abstract = {[Key concepts]

[:1] Future generations will suffer most of the harmful effects of global climate change. Yet if the world economy grows, they will be richer than we are. [:2] The present generation must decide, with the help of expert advice from economists, whether to aggressively reduce the chances of future harm or to let our richer descendants largely fend for themselves. [:3] Economists cannot avoid making ethical choices in formulating their advice. [:4] Even the small chance of utter catastrophe from global warming raises special problems for ethical discussion.},
  journal = {Scientific American},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-11583523,climate-change,communicating-uncertainty,science-ethics,scientific-communication},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-11583523},
  number = {6}
}

@book{lindnerImpactsClimateChange2008,
  title = {Impacts of Climate Change on {{European}} Forests and Options for Adaptation},
  author = {Lindner, Marcus and Schopf, Axel and Kremer, Antoine and Delzon, Sylvain and Barbati, Anna and Marchetti, Marco and Corona, Piermaria and {Garcia-Gonzalo}, Jordi and Kolstr{\"o}m, Marja and Green, Tim and Reguera, Ricardo and Maroschek, Michael and Seidl, Rupert and Lexer, Manfred J. and Netherer, Sigrid},
  year = {2008},
  address = {{Brussels}},
  abstract = {[Excerpt] This study compiles and summarizes the existing knowledge about observed and projected impacts of climate change on forests in Europe and reviews options for forests and forestry to adapt to climate change. It has been commissioned by the Directorate General for Agriculture and Rural Development of the European Commission as an initial exploration of this complex issue. Forests are particularly sensitive to climate change, because the long life-span of trees does not allow for rapid adaptation to environmental changes. Adaptation measures for forestry need to be planned well in advance of expected changes in growing conditions because the forests regenerated today will have to cope with the future climate conditions of at least several decades, often even more than 100 years. Impacts of climate change and adaptation options were reviewed by synthesizing the existing knowledge from scientific literature, complemented with expert assessments. On-going and planned adaptation measures in EU27 Member States were surveyed with a questionnaire. The exposure to climate change was analysed by reviewing latest climate change scenario projections. The main impact factors affecting forests under climate change were reviewed. Next, the sensitivity to and potential impacts of climate change were analysed. After reviewing different components of the adaptive capacity of forests and forestry, vulnerability to climate change and related risks and opportunities were highlighted. Possible adaptation measures to respond to climate change were analysed. The results are presented for four main bioclimatic zones: Boreal, Temperate Oceanic, Temperate Continental, and the Mediterranean.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13350621,adaptation,climate-change,ecological-zones,europe,forest-resources},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13350621},
  series = {Report {{AGRI}}-2007-{{G4}}-06}
}

@article{ciaisCarbonAccumulationEuropean2008,
  title = {Carbon Accumulation in {{European}} Forests},
  author = {Ciais, P. and Schelhaas, M. J. and Zaehle, S. and Piao, S. L. and Cescatti, A. and Liski, J. and Luyssaert, S. and {Le-Maire}, G. and Schulze, E. D. and Bouriaud, O. and Freibauer, A. and Valentini, R. and Nabuurs, G. J.},
  year = {2008},
  month = jun,
  volume = {1},
  pages = {425--429},
  issn = {1752-0894},
  doi = {10.1038/ngeo233},
  abstract = {European forests are intensively exploited for wood products, yet they also form a sink for carbon. European forest inventories, available for the past 50 years, can be combined with timber harvest statistics to assess changes in this carbon sink. Analysis of these data sets between 1950 and 2000 from the EU-15 countries excluding Luxembourg, plus Norway and Switzerland, reveals that there is a tight relationship between increases in forest biomass and forest ecosystem productivity but timber harvests grew more slowly. Encouragingly, the environmental conditions in combination with the type of silviculture that has been developed over the past 50 years can efficiently sequester carbon on timescales of decades, while maintaining forests that meet the demand for wood. However, a return to using wood as biofuel and hence shorter rotations in forestry could cancel out the benefits of carbon storage over the past five decades.},
  journal = {Nature Geoscience},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-3156186,biomass,carbon-mitigation,climate-change,europe,forest-biomass,forest-resources,multiauthor,outdated-yield-tables,primary-productivity,wood-production},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-3156186},
  number = {7}
}

@article{benitogarzonEffectsClimateChange2008,
  title = {Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of {{Iberian}} Tree Species},
  author = {Benito Garz{\'o}n, Marta and {S{\'a}nchez de Dios}, Rut and Sainz Ollero, Helios},
  year = {2008},
  month = apr,
  volume = {11},
  pages = {169--178},
  issn = {1402-2001},
  doi = {10.3170/2008-7-18348},
  abstract = {Question: Will the predicted climate changes affect species distribution in the Iberian Peninsula? Location: Iberian Peninsula (Spain and Portugal). Methods: We modelled current and future tree distributions as a function of climate, using a computational framework that made use of one machine learning technique, the random forest (RF) algorithm. This algorithm provided good predictions of the current distribution of each species, as shown by the area under the corresponding receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves. Species turnover, richness and the change in distributions over time to 2080 under four Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) scenarios were calculated using the species map outputs. Results and Conclusions: The results show a notable reduction in the potential distribution of the studied species under all the IPCC scenarios, particularly so for mountain conifer species such as Pinus sylvestris, P. uncinata and Abies alba. Temperate species, especially Fagus sylvatica and Quercus petraea, were also predicted to suffer a reduction in their range; also sub-mediterranean species, especially Q. pyrenaica, were predicted to undergo notable decline. In contrast, typically Mediterranean species appeared to be generally more capable of migration, and are therefore likely to be less affected.},
  journal = {Applied Vegetation Science},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12607331,abies-alba,climate-change,climatic-niche-shift,fagus-sylvatica,forest-resources,habitat-suitability,iberian-region,pinus-sylvestris,pinus-uncinata,portugal,quercus-petraea,quercus-pyrenaica,spain,species-distribution},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-12607331},
  number = {2}
}

@article{kullmanTreeLinePopulation2007,
  title = {Tree Line Population Monitoring of {{Pinus}} Sylvestris in the {{Swedish Scandes}}, 1973-2005: Implications for Tree Line Theory and Climate Change Ecology},
  author = {Kullman, Leif},
  year = {2007},
  volume = {95},
  pages = {41--52},
  doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2745.2006.01190.x},
  abstract = {* 1Demographic trends of Pinus sylvestris L. (Scots pine) tree line populations are reported for a 32-year monitoring period (1973-2005). Functional and projective aspects of tree line performance were analysed by relating temporal variability and change of vital population parameters, such as natality/mortality, vigour, injuries, height growth and seed viability to contemporary variations in air and soil temperatures. * 2The size of the entire sampled population increased by 50\,\% during the 32-year observation period and thereby pine has become a more prominent element on the landscape. This reverses a natural multicentennial or even millennial trend of tree line decline and recession. * 3Contrasting population trends were recorded for the subperiods 1973-87 and 1988-2005, viz. decline and increase, respectively. Mean summer temperatures (JJA) did not change perceivably over and between these intervals, although some exceptionally warm summers from 1997 onwards have contributed to population expansion by increased seed viability and seedling emergence. Winter temperatures (DJF) decreased significantly over the first subperiod and were consistently higher during the second, which has significantly lowered the mortality rates. * 4A functional link to winter temperature conditions was particularly stressed by the aetiology of individual plant vigour, injuries and final mortality. Classical symptoms of winter desiccation correlated significantly with low winter temperatures. This negative impact occurred with a high frequency during the decline phase and virtually ceased during the expansion phase from 1988 onwards, when winter air and root zone temperatures were raised to a consistently higher level. * 5Winter and summer temperatures in the air and soil, as well as positive feedback mechanisms and nonlinear responses, must be taken into account in the search for global or regional mechanical explanations for the tree line phenomenon. This insight helps to generate realistic tree line models for a high-CO2 world, when winter warming is usually predicted to be particularly large.},
  journal = {Journal of Ecology},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-11402583,climate-change,ecology,forest-resources,global-warming,pinus-sylvestris,tree-line},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-11402583},
  number = {1}
}

@article{dayRestorationMississippiDelta2007,
  title = {Restoration of the {{Mississippi}} Delta: Lessons from Hurricanes {{Katrina}} and {{Rita}}},
  author = {Day, John W. and Boesch, Donald F. and Clairain, Ellis J. and Kemp, G. Paul and Laska, Shirley B. and Mitsch, William J. and Orth, Kenneth and Mashriqui, Hassan and Reed, Denise J. and Shabman, Leonard and Simenstad, Charles A. and Streever, Bill J. and Twilley, Robert R. and Watson, Chester C. and Wells, John T. and Whigham, Dennis F.},
  year = {2007},
  volume = {315},
  pages = {1679--1684},
  issn = {1095-9203},
  doi = {10.1126/science.1137030},
  abstract = {Hurricanes Katrina and Rita showed the vulnerability of coastal communities and how human activities that caused deterioration of the Mississippi Deltaic Plain (MDP) exacerbated this vulnerability. The MDP formed by dynamic interactions between river and coast at various temporal and spatial scales, and human activity has reduced these interactions at all scales. Restoration efforts aim to re-establish this dynamic interaction, with emphasis on reconnecting the river to the deltaic plain. Science must guide MDP restoration, which will provide insights into delta restoration elsewhere and generally into coasts facing climate change in times of resource scarcity.},
  journal = {Science},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14007228,climate-change,cyclone,restoration,united-states,wind},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-14007228},
  number = {5819}
}

@article{lowExtraordinaryDrought20032006,
  title = {Extraordinary Drought of 2003 Overrules Ozone Impact on Adult Beech Trees ( {{Fagus}} Sylvatica )},
  author = {L{\"o}w, M. and Herbinger, K. and Nunn, A. J. and H{\"a}berle, K. H. and Leuchner, M. and Heerdt, C. and Werner, H. and Wipfler, P. and Pretzsch, H. and Tausz, M. and Matyssek, R.},
  year = {2006},
  month = sep,
  volume = {20},
  pages = {539--548},
  issn = {0931-1890},
  doi = {10.1007/s00468-006-0069-z},
  abstract = {The extraordinary drought during the summer of 2003 in Central Europe allowed to examine responses of adult beech trees ( Fagus sylvatica ) to co-occurring stress by soil moisture deficit and elevated O 3 levels under forest conditions in southern Germany. The study comprised tree exposure to the ambient O 3 regime at the site and to a twice-ambient O 3 regime as released into the canopy through a free-air O 3 fumigation system. Annual courses of photosynthesis ( A max ), stomatal conductance ( g s ), electron transport rate (ETR) and chlorophyll levels were compared between 2003 and 2004, the latter year representing the humid long-term climate at the site. ETR, A max and g s were lowered during 2003 by drought rather than ozone, whereas chlorophyll levels did not differ between the years. Radial stem increment was reduced in 2003 by drought but fully recovered during the subsequent, humid year. Comparison of AOT40, an O 3 exposure-based risk index of O 3 stress, and cumulative ozone uptake (COU) yielded a linear relationship throughout humid growth conditions, but a changing slope during 2003. Our findings support the hypothesis that drought protects plants from O 3 injury by stomatal closure, which restricts O 3 influx into leaves and decouples COU from high external ozone levels. High AOT40 erroneously suggested high O 3 risk under drought. Enhanced ozone levels did not aggravate drought effects in leaves and stem.},
  journal = {Trees - Structure and Function},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-11379882,adaptation,climate-change,droughts,europe,fagus-sylvatica,forest-resources,ozone},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-11379882},
  number = {5}
}

@article{tornMissingFeedbacksAsymmetric2006,
  title = {Missing Feedbacks, Asymmetric Uncertainties, and the Underestimation of Future Warming},
  author = {Torn, Margaret S. and Harte, John},
  year = {2006},
  month = may,
  volume = {33},
  pages = {n/a},
  issn = {0094-8276},
  doi = {10.1029/2005gl025540},
  abstract = {Historical evidence shows that atmospheric greenhouse gas (GhG) concentrations increase during periods of warming, implying a positive feedback to future climate change. We quantified this feedback for CO2 and CH4 by combining the mathematics of feedback with empirical ice-core information and general circulation model (GCM) climate sensitivity, finding that the warming of 1.5-4.5\textdegree C associated with anthropogenic doubling of CO2 is amplified to 1.6-6.0\textdegree C warming, with the uncertainty range deriving from GCM simulations and paleo temperature records. Thus, anthropogenic emissions result in higher final GhG concentrations, and therefore more warming, than would be predicted in the absence of this feedback. Moreover, a symmetrical uncertainty in any component of feedback, whether positive or negative, produces an asymmetrical distribution of expected temperatures skewed toward higher temperature. For both reasons, the omission of key positive feedbacks and asymmetrical uncertainty from feedbacks, it is likely that the future will be hotter than we think.},
  journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-3308907,climate-change,climate-projections,feedback,ghg,global-warming,modelling,non-linearity,prediction-bias,temperature,uncertainty},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-3308907},
  number = {10}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{citeulike:843169,
    abstract = {Rapid increases in global temperature are likely to impose strong directional selection on many plant populations, which must therefore adapt if they are to survive. Within populations, microgeographic genetic differentiation of individuals with respect to climate suggests that some populations may adapt to changing temperatures in the short-term through rapid changes in gene frequency. We used a genome scan to identify temperature-related adaptive differentiation of individuals of the tree species Fagus sylvatica. By combining molecular marker and dendrochronological data we assessed spatial and temporal variation in gene frequency at the locus identified as being under selection. We show that gene frequency at this locus varies predictably with temperature. The probability of the presence of the dominant marker allele shows a declining trend over the latter half of the 20th century, in parallel with rising temperatures in the region. Our results show that F. sylvatica populations may show some capacity for an in situ adaptive response to climate change. However as reported ongoing distributional changes demonstrate, this response is not enough to allow all populations of this species to persist in all of their current locations.},
    author = {Jump, Alistair S. and Hunt, Jenny M. and Mart\'{\i}nez-Izquierdo, Jos\'{e} A. and Pe\~{n}uelas, Josep},
    citeulike-article-id = {843169},
    citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1365-294X.2006.03027.x},
    citeulike-linkout-1 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-294x.2006.03027.x},
    citeulike-linkout-2 = {http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/bsc/mecol/2006/00000015/00000011/art00028},
    doi = {10.1111/j.1365-294x.2006.03027.x},
    issn = {0962-1083},
    journal = {Molecular Ecology},
    keywords = {adaptation, climate-change, fagus-sylvatica, forest-resources, genetic-variability, global-warming, habitat-suitability},
    month = oct,
    number = {11},
    pages = {3469--3480},
    posted-at = {2012-10-03 15:08:01},
    priority = {2},
    publisher = {Blackwell Publishing Ltd},
    title = {Natural selection and climate change: temperature-linked spatial and temporal trends in gene frequency in Fagus sylvatica},
    url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-294x.2006.03027.x},
    volume = {15},
    year = {2006}
}

@article{kocaModellingRegionalClimate2006,
  title = {Modelling Regional Climate Change Effects on Potential Natural Ecosystems in {{Sweden}}},
  author = {Koca, Deniz and Smith, Benjamin and Sykes, Martin T.},
  year = {2006},
  month = oct,
  volume = {78},
  pages = {381--406},
  issn = {0165-0009},
  doi = {10.1007/s10584-005-9030-1},
  abstract = {This study aims to demonstrate the potential of a process-based regional ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS, driven by climate scenarios generated by a regional climate model system (RCM) to generate predictions useful for assessing effects of climatic and CO2 change on the key ecosystem services of carbon uptake and storage. Scenarios compatible with the A2 and B2 greenhouse gas emission scenarios of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) and with boundary conditions from two general circulation models (GCMs) - HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3 - were used in simulations to explore changes in tree species distributions, vegetation structure, productivity and ecosystem carbon stocks for the late 21st Century, thus accommodating a proportion of the GCM-based and emissions-based uncertainty in future climate development. The simulations represented in this study were of the potential natural vegetation ignoring direct anthropogenic effects. Results suggest that shifts in climatic zones may lead to changes in species distribution and community composition among seven major tree species of natural Swedish forests. All four climate scenarios were associated with an extension of the boreal forest treeline with respect to altitude and latitude. In the boreal and boreo-nemoral zones, the dominance of Norway spruce and to a lesser extent Scots pine was reduced in favour of deciduous broadleaved tree species. The model also predicted substantial increases in vegetation net primary productivity (NPP), especially in central Sweden. Expansion of forest cover and increased local biomass enhanced the net carbon sink over central and northern Sweden, despite increased carbon release through decomposition processes in the soil. In southern Sweden, reduced growing season soil moisture levels counterbalanced the positive effects of a longer growing season and increased carbon supply on NPP, with the result that many areas were converted from a sink to a source of carbon by the late 21st century. The economy-oriented A2 emission scenario would lead to higher NPP and stronger carbon sinks according to the simulations than the environment-oriented B2 scenario.},
  journal = {Climatic Change},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-1023722,betula-pendula,betula-pubescens,broadleaved,carbon-stock,climate-change,ecosystem,environmental-modelling,fagus-sylvatica,forest-biomass,forest-resources,ipcc-scenarios,land-cover,picea-abies,pinus-sylvestris,primary-productivity,quercus-spp,scenario-analysis,sweden,tilia-cordata},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-1023722},
  number = {2-4}
}

@article{menzelEuropeanPhenologicalResponse2006,
  title = {European Phenological Response to Climate Change Matches the Warming Pattern},
  author = {Menzel, Annette and Sparks, Tim H. and Estrella, Nicole and Koch, Elisabeth and Aasa, Anto and Ahas, Rein and {Alm-K{\"u}bler}, Kerstin and Bissolli, Peter and Braslavsk{\'a}, Ol'ga and Briede, Agrita and Chmielewski, Frank M. and Crepinsek, Zalika and Curnel, Yannick and Dahl, {\AA}sl{\"o}g and Defila, Claudio and Donnelly, Alison and Filella, Yolanda and Jatczak, Katarzyna and M{\r{}}age, Finn and Mestre, Antonio and Nordli, {\O}yvind and Pe{\~n}uelas, Josep and Pirinen, Pentti and Remi{\v s}ov{\'a}, Viera and Scheifinger, Helfried and Striz, Martin and Susnik, Andreja and Van Vliet, Arnold J. H. and Wielgolaski, Frans-Emil and Zach, Susanne and Zust, Ana},
  year = {2006},
  month = oct,
  volume = {12},
  pages = {1969--1976},
  issn = {1354-1013},
  doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01193.x},
  abstract = {Global climate change impacts can already be tracked in many physical and biological systems; in particular, terrestrial ecosystems provide a consistent picture of observed changes. One of the preferred indicators is phenology, the science of natural recurring events, as their recorded dates provide a high-temporal resolution of ongoing changes. Thus, numerous analyses have demonstrated an earlier onset of spring events for mid and higher latitudes and a lengthening of the growing season. However, published single-site or single-species studies are particularly open to suspicion of being biased towards predominantly reporting climate change-induced impacts. No comprehensive study or meta-analysis has so far examined the possible lack of evidence for changes or shifts at sites where no temperature change is observed. We used an enormous systematic phenological network data set of more than 125~000 observational series of 542 plant and 19 animal species in 21 European countries (1971-2000). Our results showed that 78\,\% of all leafing, flowering and fruiting records advanced (30\,\% significantly) and only 3\,\% were significantly delayed, whereas the signal of leaf colouring/fall is ambiguous. We conclude that previously published results of phenological changes were not biased by reporting or publication predisposition: the average advance of spring/summer was 2.5 days decade-1 in Europe. Our analysis of 254 mean national time series undoubtedly demonstrates that species' phenology is responsive to temperature of the preceding months (mean advance of spring/summer by 2.5 days\textdegree C-1, delay of leaf colouring and fall by 1.0 day\textdegree C-1). The pattern of observed change in spring efficiently matches measured national warming across 19 European countries (correlation coefficient r=-0.69, P{$<$}0.001).},
  journal = {Global Change Biology},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-847201,climate-change,europe,forest-resources,global-warming,multiauthor,phenology,vegetation},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-847201},
  number = {10}
}

@article{guisanPredictingSpeciesDistribution2005,
  title = {Predicting Species Distribution: Offering More than Simple Habitat Models},
  author = {Guisan, Antoine and Thuiller, Wilfried},
  year = {2005},
  month = sep,
  volume = {8},
  pages = {993--1009},
  issn = {1461-023X},
  doi = {10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00792.x},
  abstract = {In the last two decades, interest in species distribution models (SDMs) of plants and animals has grown dramatically. Recent advances in SDMs allow us to potentially forecast anthropogenic effects on patterns of biodiversity at different spatial scales. However, some limitations still preclude the use of SDMs in many theoretical and practical applications. Here, we provide an overview of recent advances in this field, discuss the ecological principles and assumptions underpinning SDMs, and highlight critical limitations and decisions inherent in the construction and evaluation of SDMs. Particular emphasis is given to the use of SDMs for the assessment of climate change impacts and conservation management issues. We suggest new avenues for incorporating species migration, population dynamics, biotic interactions and community ecology into SDMs at multiple spatial scales. Addressing all these issues requires a better integration of SDMs with ecological theory.},
  journal = {Ecology Letters},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-280759,bioclimatic-predictors,climate-change,conservation,ecology,environmental-predictors,habitat-conservation,habitat-suitability,migration-history,mode,modelling,niche-modelling,potential-habitat,species-distribution},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-280759},
  number = {9}
}

@article{schroterEcosystemServiceSupply2005,
  title = {Ecosystem Service Supply and Vulnerability to Global Change in {{Europe}}},
  author = {Schr{\"o}ter, Dagmar and Cramer, Wolfgang and Leemans, Rik and Prentice, I. Colin and Ara{\'u}jo, Miguel B. and Arnell, Nigel W. and Bondeau, Alberte and Bugmann, Harald and Carter, Timothy R. and Gracia, Carlos A. and {de la Vega-Leinert}, Anne C. and Erhard, Markus and Ewert, Frank and Glendining, Margaret and House, Joanna I. and Kankaanp{\"a}{\"a}, Susanna and Klein, Richard J. T. and Lavorel, Sandra and Lindner, Marcus and Metzger, Marc J. and Meyer, Jeannette and Mitchell, Timothy D. and Reginster, Isabelle and Rounsevell, Mark and Sabat{\'e}, Santi and Sitch, Stephen and Smith, Ben and Smith, Jo and Smith, Pete and Sykes, Martin T. and Thonicke, Kirsten and Thuiller, Wilfried and Tuck, Gill and Zaehle, S{\"o}nke and Zierl, B{\"a}rbel},
  year = {2005},
  month = nov,
  volume = {310},
  pages = {1333--1337},
  issn = {1095-9203},
  doi = {10.1126/science.1115233},
  abstract = {Global change will alter the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. To investigate ecosystem service supply during the 21st century, we used a range of ecosystem models and scenarios of climate and land-use change to conduct a Europe-wide assessment. Large changes in climate and land use typically resulted in large changes in ecosystem service supply. Some of these trends may be positive (for example, increases in forest area and productivity) or offer opportunities (for example, '' surplus land'' for agricultural extensification and bioenergy production). However, many changes increase vulnerability as a result of a decreasing supply of ecosystem services (for example, declining soil fertility, declining water availability, increasing risk of forest fires), especially in the Mediterranean and mountain regions.},
  journal = {Science},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-460429,~to-add-doi-URL,agricultural-land,agricultural-resources,bioenergy,climate,climate-change,ecosystem,ecosystem-services,environmental-modelling,europe,forest-fires,forest-resources,global-change,land-use,mediterranean-region,mountainous-areas,scenario-analysis,soil-resources,vulnerability,water-resources,wildfires},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-460429},
  number = {5752}
}

@article{araujoWouldClimateChange2004,
  title = {Would Climate Change Drive Species out of Reserves? {{An}} Assessment of Existing Reserve-Selection Methods},
  author = {Araujo, Miguel B. and Cabeza, Mar and Thuiller, Wilfried and Hannah, Lee and Williams, Paul H.},
  year = {2004},
  month = sep,
  volume = {10},
  pages = {1618--1626},
  issn = {1354-1013},
  doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2486.2004.00828.x},
  abstract = {Concern for climate change has not yet been integrated in protocols for reserve selection. However if climate changes as projected, there is a possibility that current reserve-selection methods might provide solutions that are inadequate to ensure species' long-term persistence within reserves. We assessed, for the first time, the ability of existing reserve-selection methods to secure species in a climate-change context. Six methods using a different combination of criteria (representation, suitability and reserve clustering) are compared. The assessment is carried out using European distributions of 1200 plant species and considering two extreme scenarios of response to climate change: no dispersal and universal dispersal. With our data, 6-11\,\% of species modelled would be potentially lost from selected reserves in a 50-year period. Measured uncertainties varied in 6\,\% being 1-3\,\% attributed to dispersal assumptions and 2-5\,\% to the choice of reserve-selection method. Suitability approaches to reserve selection performed best, while reserve clustering performed poorly. We also found that 5\,\% of species modelled would lose their entire climatic envelope in the studied area; 2\,\% of the species modelled would have nonoverlapping distributions; 93\,\% of the species modelled would maintain varying levels of overlapping distributions. We conclude there are opportunities to minimize species' extinctions within reserves but new approaches are needed to account for impacts of climate change on species; especially for those projected to have temporally nonoverlapping distributions.},
  journal = {Global Change Biology},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-201812,~to-add-doi-URL,climate-change,clustering,conservation,europe,species-dispersal,species-distribution,uncertainty},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-201812},
  number = {9}
}

@article{pacalaStabilizationWedgesSolving2004,
  title = {Stabilization Wedges: {{Solving}} the Climate Problem for the next 50 Years with Current Technologies},
  author = {Pacala, S. and Socolow, R.},
  year = {2004},
  volume = {305},
  pages = {968--972},
  doi = {10.1126/science.1100103},
  abstract = {Humanity already possesses the fundamental scientific, technical, and industrial know-how to solve the carbon and climate problem for the next half-century. A portfolio of technologies now exists to meet the world's energy needs over the next 50 years and limit atmospheric CO2 to a trajectory that avoids a doubling of the preindustrial concentration. Every element in this portfolio has passed beyond the laboratory bench and demonstration project; many are already implemented somewhere at full industrial scale. Although no element is a credible candidate for doing the entire job (or even half the job) by itself, the portfolio as a whole is large enough that not every element has to be used.},
  journal = {Science},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12344749,climate-change,mitigation,technology},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-12344749},
  number = {5686}
}

@article{aussenacEcologyEcophysiologyCircumMediterranean2002,
  title = {Ecology and Ecophysiology of Circum-{{Mediterranean}} Firsin the Context of Climate Change},
  author = {Aussenac, Gilbert},
  year = {2002},
  month = dec,
  volume = {59},
  pages = {823--832},
  issn = {1286-4560},
  doi = {10.1051/forest:2002080},
  abstract = {In the expected climatic change scenario (with increased temperatures and water deficits) related to greenhouse effect phenomena, questions are being raised concerning the migration of the potential range of forest specie (contraction in the south and at lower altitudes, extension towards the north and higher altitudes) and the consequences on silviculture. To answer these questions, information about climatic changes and the ecophysiology of the forest species concerned is required. In this paper the case of circum-Mediterranean firs is examined as they could be in danger in parts of their present range but could also provide valuable solutions for the replacement of other species in more northerly zones with temperate humid climates and that would not be adapted to new climatic conditions. We try to answer these questions using a simplified climatic analysis of the original ranges and knowledge about the ecology and ecophysiology of firs. In the original ranges of these species climatic data is rare and very incomplete. Under these conditions it is impossible to undertake a detailed climatological analysis. Also, taking into account the diversity and heterogeneity of the climatic descriptions made by the various authors, and so as to be able to compare the different firs species, we used an aridity index. By taking a numerical approach, this index allowed us to have a general and comparative view of the climatology of the original fir ranges in relation to drought problems, and also to simulate evolution easily and compare it with the present situations for each species. On the basis of all the different results obtained it seems that, in relation to a possible increase in drought linked to a temperature increase (except no doubt for Abies numidica and A. pinsapo), there is a great risk that the present ranges of circum-Mediterranean firs will decrease in the lowest zones of their range, but also in other zones characterized by southerly aspects and shallow soils. For Abies cephalonica and Abies cilicica, species with early bud burst, there is also the risk of a possible increase in late frost damage in addition to water stress effects. Except for A. nordmanniana and A. bornmulleriana, other species may also be concerned, but to a lesser extent. Regarding the replacement of species, which would become necessary in the case of climatic change, with the exceptions of A. nordmanniana which has already been used and of for A. nebrodensis, these firs could be an alternative to the regression of more hygrophilous species, especially in zones to the north of their present ranges.},
  journal = {Annals of Forest Science},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13495770,abies-spp,climate-change,forest-resources},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13495770},
  number = {8}
}

Website  bibtex   

@article{
 title = {Ecological responses to recent climate change},
 type = {article},
 year = {2002},
 identifiers = {[object Object]},
 pages = {389-395},
 volume = {416},
 websites = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/416389a},
 id = {8df9a2db-99ef-3ba6-898e-d4e6c32695d8},
 created = {2011-02-22T18:00:53.000Z},
 file_attached = {false},
 profile_id = {c04350e2-ca59-3023-9537-35726b8dc7ec},
 group_id = {3addd0f7-d578-34d3-be80-24022cc062a1},
 last_modified = {2019-06-04T14:58:47.448Z},
 read = {false},
 starred = {false},
 authored = {false},
 confirmed = {true},
 hidden = {false},
 citation_key = {Walther2002},
 source_type = {Journal Article},
 notes = {M3: 10.1038/416389a; 10.1038/416389a<m:linebreak></m:linebreak>Journal Article},
 private_publication = {false},
 bibtype = {article},
 author = {Walther, G and Post, E and Convey, P and Menzel, A and Parmesan, C and Beebee, T J C and Fromentin, J and Hoegh-Guldberg, O and Bairlein, F and Anonymous, undefined},
 journal = {Nature},
 number = {6879}
}

@article{reyAnnualVariationSoil2002,
  title = {Annual Variation in Soil Respiration and Its Components in a Coppice Oak Forest in {{Central Italy}}},
  author = {Rey, Ana and Pegoraro, Emiliano and Tedeschi, Vanessa and De Parri, Ilaria and Jarvis, Paul G. and Valentini, Riccardo},
  year = {2002},
  month = sep,
  volume = {8},
  pages = {851--866},
  issn = {1354-1013},
  doi = {10.1046/j.1365-2486.2002.00521.x},
  abstract = {In order to investigate the annual variation of soil respiration and its components in relation to seasonal changes in soil temperature and soil moisture in a Mediterranean mixed oak forest ecosystem, we set up a series of experimental treatments in May 1999 where litter (no litter), roots (no roots, by trenching) or both were excluded from plots of 4 m2. Subsequently, we measured soil respiration, soil temperature and soil moisture in each plot over a year after the forest was coppiced. The treatments did not significantly affect soil temperature or soil moisture measured over 0-10 cm depth.

Soil respiration varied markedly during the year with high rates in spring and autumn and low rates in summer, coinciding with summer drought, and in winter, with the lowest temperatures. Very high respiration rates, however, were observed during the summer immediately after rainfall events. The mean annual rate of soil respiration was 2.9 \textmu mol m-2 s-1, ranging from 1.35 to 7.03 \textmu mol m-2 s-1.

Soil respiration was highly correlated with temperature during winter and during spring and autumn whenever volumetric soil water content was above 20\,\%. Below this threshold value, there was no correlation between soil respiration and soil temperature, but soil moisture was a good predictor of soil respiration. A simple empirical model that predicted soil respiration during the year, using both soil temperature and soil moisture accounted for more than 91\,\% of the observed annual variation in soil respiration.

All the components of soil respiration followed a similar seasonal trend and were affected by summer drought. The Q10 value for soil respiration was 2.32, which is in agreement with other studies in forest ecosystems. However, we found a Q10 value for root respiration of 2.20, which is lower than recent values reported for forest sites. The fact that the seasonal variation in root growth with temperature in Mediterranean ecosystems differs from that in temperate regions may explain this difference. In temperate regions, increases in size of root populations during the growing season, coinciding with high temperatures, may yield higher apparent Q10 values than in Mediterranean regions where root growth is suppressed by summer drought.

The decomposition of organic matter and belowground litter were the major components of soil respiration, accounting for almost 55\,\% of the total soil respiration flux. This proportion is higher than has been reported for mature boreal and temperate forest and is probably the result of a short-term C loss following recent logging at the site.

The relationship proposed for soil respiration with soil temperature and soil moisture is useful for understanding and predicting potential changes in Mediterranean forest ecosystems in response to forest management and climate change.},
  journal = {Global Change Biology},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13342839,carpinus-betulus,climate-change,forest-management,forest-resources,italy,juniperus-communis,mediterranean-region,quercus-cerris,quercus-ilex,quercus-petraea,quercus-pubescens,quercus-robur,quercus-suber,respiration,soil-resources},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13342839},
  number = {9}
}

@article{lempertNewDecisionSciences2002,
  title = {A New Decision Sciences for Complex Systems},
  author = {Lempert, Robert J.},
  year = {2002},
  month = may,
  volume = {99},
  pages = {7309--7313},
  issn = {1091-6490},
  doi = {10.1073/pnas.082081699},
  abstract = {Models of complex systems can capture much useful information but can be difficult to apply to real-world decision-making because the type of information they contain is often inconsistent with that required for traditional decision analysis. New approaches, which use inductive reasoning over large ensembles of computational experiments, now make possible systematic comparison of alternative policy options using models of complex systems. This article describes Computer-Assisted Reasoning, an approach to decision-making under conditions of deep uncertainty that is ideally suited to applying complex systems to policy analysis. The article demonstrates the approach on the policy problem of global climate change, with a particular focus on the role of technology policies in a robust, adaptive strategy for greenhouse gas abatement.},
  journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-8246659,climate-change,complexity,computational-science,deep-uncertainty,modelling,robust-modelling,science-based-decision-making,uncertainty},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-8246659},
  number = {suppl 3}
}

@article{kullmanRapidRecentRangemargin2002,
  title = {Rapid Recent Range-Margin Rise of Tree and Shrub Species in the {{Swedish Scandes}}},
  author = {Kullman, Leif},
  year = {2002},
  month = feb,
  volume = {90},
  pages = {68--77},
  issn = {0022-0477},
  doi = {10.1046/j.0022-0477.2001.00630.x},
  abstract = {1. Recent elevational range-margin performance of tree and shrub species was studied at a site in the Swedish Scandes. The methods included comparisons of historical and present-day range-margin records (m a.s.l.) in conjunction with age-determination of newly established saplings. 2. Since the early 1950s, the range-margins of Betula pubescens ssp. tortuosa (mountain birch), Picea abies (Norway spruce), Pinus sylvestris (Scots pine), Sorbus aucuparia (rowan) and Salix spp. (willows) have advanced by 120-375 m to colonize moderate snow-bed communities. The non-native Acer platanoides (Norway maple) has become established just below the birch forest-limit. In concert with tree-limit rises by 100-150 m in the same region, the present results suggest a shift in reproduction and a significant break in the late-Holocene vegetation history. 3. Ring-counting (in 2000) of a subsample of the recovered saplings revealed that, with one exception, they were aged between 7 and 12 years, i.e. they germinated after 1987. Since 1988 there has been strong and consistent winter warming, with some very warm summers, and this may ultimately have forced the vegetational changes. 4. Reduced summer snow-retention has favoured seedling establishment and juvenile growth, and mild winters, with reduced risk of frost-desiccation, have enhanced survivorship and height increment. 5. Certain seed-regenerating tree and shrub species have tracked recent climate change quite rapidly and more sensitively than vegetatively propagating field-layer species. Such species-specific responses may give rise to novel high-elevation vegetational patterns in a hypothetically warmer future world.},
  journal = {Journal of Ecology},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12642149,betula-pubescens,climate-change,forest-resources,mountainous-areas,picea-abies,pinus-sylvestris,salix-spp,shrubs,sorbus-aucuparia,sweden,tree-line},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-12642149},
  number = {1}
}

@article{nabuursStemwoodVolumeIncrement2002,
  title = {Stemwood Volume Increment Changes in {{European}} Forests Due to Climate Change - a Simulation Study with the {{EFISCEN}} Model},
  author = {Nabuurs, Gert-Jan and Pussinen, Ari and Karjalainen, Timo and Erhard, Markus and Kramer, Koen},
  year = {2002},
  volume = {8},
  pages = {304--316},
  doi = {10.1046/j.1354-1013.2001.00470.x},
  abstract = {This paper presents the results of a modelling study of future net annual increment changes in stemwood of European forests owing to climate change. Seven process-based growth models were applied to 14 representative forest sites across Europe under one climate change scenario. The chosen scenario was the HadCM2 run, based on emission scenario IS92a, and resulted in an increase in mean temperature of 2.5~\textdegree C between 1990 and 2050, and an increase in annual precipitation of 5-15\,\%. The information from those runs was incorporated in a transient way in a large-scale forest resource scenario model, EFISCEN (European forest information scenario). European scale forest resource projections were made for 28 countries covering 131.7~million~ha of forest under two management scenarios for the period until 2050. The results showed that net annual increments in stemwood of European forests under climate change will further increase with an additional 0.9~m3~ha-1~y-1 in 2030 compared to the ongoing increase under a current climate scenario, i.e. an extra 18\,\% increase. After 2030 the extra increment increase is reduced to 0.79~m3~ha-1~y-1 in 2050. Under climate change, absolute net annual increments will increase from the present 4.95, on average for Europe, to 5.93~m3~ha-1~y-1 in 2025. After 2025, increments in all scenarios start to decline owing to ageing of the forest and the high growing stocks being reached. The results of the present study are surrounded by large uncertainties. These uncertainties are caused by unknown emissions in the future, unknown extent of climate change, uncertainty in process-based models, uncertainty in inventory data, and uncertainty in inventory projection. Although the results are thus not conclusive, climate change may lead to extra felling opportunities in European forests of 87~million~m3y-1. Because Europe's forests are intensively managed already, management may adapt to climate change relatively easily. However, this study also indicates that climate change may lead to a faster build-up of growing stocks. That may create a less stable forest resource in terms of risks to storm damage.},
  journal = {Global Change Biology},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-11580844,climate-change,europe,forest-resources,outdated-yield-tables,wood-production},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-11580844},
  number = {4}
}

@article{baleHerbivoryGlobalClimate2002,
  title = {Herbivory in Global Climate Change Research: Direct Effects of Rising Temperature on Insect Herbivores},
  author = {Bale, Jeffery S. and Masters, Gregory J. and Hodkinson, Ian D. and Awmack, Caroline and Bezemer, T. Martijn and Brown, Valerie K. and Butterfield, Jennifer and Buse, Alan and Coulson, John C. and Farrar, John and Good, John E. G. and Harrington, Richard and Hartley, Susane and Jones, T. Hefin and Lindroth, Richard L. and Press, Malcolm C. and Symrnioudis, Ilias and Watt, Allan D. and Whittaker, John B.},
  year = {2002},
  month = jan,
  volume = {8},
  pages = {1--16},
  issn = {1365-2486},
  doi = {10.1046/j.1365-2486.2002.00451.x},
  abstract = {This review examines the direct effects of climate change on insect herbivores. Temperature is identified as the dominant abiotic factor directly affecting herbivorous insects. There is little evidence of any direct effects of CO2 or UVB. Direct impacts of precipitation have been largely neglected in current research on climate change. Temperature directly affects development, survival, range and abundance. Species with a large geographical range will tend to be less affected. The main effect of temperature in temperate regions is to influence winter survival; at more northerly latitudes, higher temperatures extend the summer season, increasing the available thermal budget for growth and reproduction. Photoperiod is the dominant cue for the seasonal synchrony of temperate insects, but their thermal requirements may differ at different times of year. Interactions between photoperiod and temperature determine phenology; the two factors do not necessarily operate in tandem. Insect herbivores show a number of distinct life-history strategies to exploit plants with different growth forms and strategies, which will be differentially affected by climate warming. There are still many challenges facing biologists in predicting and monitoring the impacts of climate change. Future research needs to consider insect herbivore phenotypic and genotypic flexibility, their responses to global change parameters operating in concert, and awareness that some patterns may only become apparent in the longer term.},
  journal = {Global Change Biology},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13828992,climate-change,herbivory,insects,review,warming},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13828992},
  number = {1}
}

@article{inouyeEcologicalEvolutionarySignificance2000,
  title = {The Ecological and Evolutionary Significance of Frost in the Context of Climate Change},
  author = {Inouye, D. W.},
  year = {2000},
  month = sep,
  volume = {3},
  pages = {457--463},
  issn = {1461-023X},
  doi = {10.1046/j.1461-0248.2000.00165.x},
  abstract = {The effects that below-freezing temperature (frost) can have at times of year when it is unusual are an interesting ecological phenomenon that has received little attention. The physiological consequence of formation of ice crystals in plant tissue is often death of the plants, or at least of sensitive parts that can include flower buds, ovaries, and leaves. The loss of potential for sexual reproduction can have long-lasting effects on the demography of annuals and long-lived perennials, because the short-term negative effects of frosts can result in longer-term benefits through lowered populations of seed predators. The loss of host plants can have dramatic consequences for herbivores, even causing local extinctions, and the loss of just flowers can also affect populations of seed predators and their parasitoids. Frosts can cause local extinctions and influence the geographical distribution of some species. The potential for global climate change to influence the frequency and distribution of frost events is uncertain, but it seems likely that they may become more frequent in some areas and less frequent in others.},
  journal = {Ecology Letters},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-2812147,~to-add-doi-URL,climate-change,frost-damage},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-2812147},
  number = {5}
}

@article{rehfeldtGeneticResponsesClimate1999,
  title = {Genetic Responses to Climate in {{Pinus}} Contorta: Niche Breadth, Climate Change, and Reforestation},
  author = {Rehfeldt, Gerald E. and Ying, Cheng C. and Spittlehouse, David L. and Hamilton, David A.},
  year = {1999},
  month = aug,
  volume = {69},
  pages = {375--407},
  issn = {0012-9615},
  doi = {10.1890/0012-9615(1999)069[0375:GRTCIP]2.0.CO;2},
  abstract = {Fundamental plant-environment relationships were revealed by analyses of 20-yr height and survival of 118 populations representing two subspecies of Pinus contorta growing in common gardens at 60 environmentally disparate test sites in British Columbia. The approach involved (1) preparing models that described the general climate of British Columbia, (2) developing population-specific response functions driven by predicted climate variables, (3) developing general transfer functions that predict performance from the climatic distances over which populations were transferred, and (4) interpreting the results in terms of niche breadth, effects of climate change on adaptedness of populations, and reforestation in a changing environment.

Polynomial regression models used physiographic descriptors to predict seven climate variables from normalized records of 513 weather stations. Values of R2 ranged over 0.80-0.97 for thermal variables and 0.54-0.61 for precipitation variables. Validations with independent data from 45 stations were strong and suggested that the models were generally free of bias within the limits of the original data.

Response functions describing the height or survival of each population were developed from quadratic regressions using predicted climate variables for each test site. Mean annual temperature and mean temperature in the coldest month were the most effective variables for predicting population height, while the ratio of summer temperature to summer moisture was the best predictor of survival. Validation of the response functions with independent data from two additional test sites produced values of R2 between actual and predicted values that were as high as 0.93 for height and 0.73 for survival. The results demonstrated that natural populations have different climatic optima but tend to occupy suboptimal environments. Nevertheless, the general transfer functions showed that optimal growth and survival of the species as a whole is associated with the null transfer distance.

These seemingly anomalous results suggest that the same processes thought to determine the distribution of species control the distribution of genotypes within species: (1) environmental selection to produce a broad fundamental niche, and (2) density-dependent selection to produce a relatively narrow realized niche within which most populations are relegated to suboptimal environments. Consequently, the steep geographic clines typical of P. contorta seem to be driven more by density-dependent selection than by environmental selection. Asymmetric gene flow from the center of distribution toward the periphery is viewed as a primary regulator that provides the fuel for both environmental and density-dependent selection and thereby indirectly perpetuates suboptimality.

The response functions predict that small changes in climate will greatly affect growth and survival of forest tree populations and, therefore, that maintaining contemporary forest productivities during global warming will require a wholesale redistribution of genotypes across the landscape. The response functions also provide the climatic bases to current reforestation guidelines and quantify the adjustments necessary for maintaining adaptedness in planted trees during periods of small (1\textdegree C) temporal temperature shifts.},
  journal = {Ecological Monographs},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12593318,climate-change,forest-resources,niche-modelling,pinus-contorta},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-12593318},
  number = {3}
}

@article{sicoliMultipleFactorsAssociated1998,
  title = {Multiple Factors Associated with Oak Decline in Southern {{Italy}}},
  author = {Sicoli, G. and {de Gioia}, T. and Luisi, N. and Lerario, P.},
  year = {1998},
  volume = {37},
  pages = {1--8},
  issn = {0031-9465},
  abstract = {Severe decline of oak trees has been observed in Italy in the last fifteen years and attributed to several biotic and abiotic causes. In order to assess the spread and the etiology of oak decline in southern Italy, investigations have been carried out in eight declining oak woods. Oak species affected, site and climatic conditions, plant water potential, anthropic factors (pasturing, silvicultural management, air pollution) and fungi associated to declining plants were evaluated. Quercus cerris L. and Q. frainetto Ten. were more susceptible to decline than Q. pubescens Willd. Highest values of water potentials occurred in susceptible Quercus species. Oak decline proved to be more serious where a prolonged drought had occurred. In several oak woods, susceptible Q. cerris and Q. frainetto tend to be gradually substituted by the more xerotollerant Q. pubescens. This alteration in oak species composition occurred more markedly in old and neglected coppice stands, characterized by overstocking, poor soil fertility, unfavourable exposure and over-pasturing. The following genera of fungi were frequently isolated from diseased oaks: Diplodia, Hypoxylon, Cylindrocarpon, Phoma, Ophiostoma/Ceratocystis, Armillaria, Phellinus. The results of this investigation indicated that oak decline can be controlled by silvicultural practices and careful management.},
  journal = {Phytopathologia Mediterranea},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13799939,climate-change,forest-pests,forest-resources,oak-decline,quercus-spp},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13799939},
  number = {1}
}